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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 鄭克聲(Ke-Sheng Cheng) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ho-Chia Chang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 張和家 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-23T09:04:41Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-09-17 | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-11-23T09:04:41Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2021-09-17 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-09-15 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/79594 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 氣候變遷對台灣造成多方面的衝擊，包括潛在降雨特性的改變導致更頻繁且嚴重的洪水或乾旱衝擊。Pettitt 檢定和 Mann-Kendall (MK) 檢定分別用以評估變遷點以及趨勢成分的量級。因此，Pettitt 檢定被視為變遷偵測的方法，而 MK 檢定被視為趨勢偵測的方法。然而，如果忽略針對時間序列相關性的處理，會導致 MK 檢定做出錯誤的結論。本文考慮強加線性趨勢於平穩一階自我迴歸模型的時間序列，提出可以控制型一誤差並且提高檢定力的修正趨勢移除—前置白化方法進行 MK 檢定。研究是否潛在氣候變遷於設計延時1、2、3、6、12、24與48小時的年最大降雨量序列以及鋒面雨、對流雨、颱風與梅雨事件所構成的事件最大降雨量序列。顯著趨勢經常存在於年最大降雨量序列，但極少存在於事件最大降雨量序列。根據超過百年紀錄的資料，於1947年以前，台中、台南、恆春、台東與花蓮各站設計延時1、2、3小時的年最大降雨量序列相同，揭露台灣中央氣象局可能曾更新雨量計設備。在1960至2020年間，台灣北部和南部在不同的設計延時的年最大降雨量序列顯示顯著遞增的趨勢。對流雨事件最大降雨量序列顯示顯著遞增的趨勢，且1940前後為變遷點。此外本文介紹基於關聯耦合的水文頻率分析，聚焦在 Kendall’s tau 和常態分數的相關性 (correlation of normal scores) 兩種和諧性測度 (concordance measure)。為了在相同的基準下比較候選關聯耦合族的相依結構，Kendall’s tau 在隨機抽樣的過程是固定的。透過模擬驗證和諧性測度確實反應相依結構的特性。應用推論邊緣函數法 (inference functions for margins method) 解聯合機率密度函數的參數及應用赤池訊息量準則 (AIC) 和貝葉斯信息量準則 (BIC) 進行模型挑選。針對颱風事件進行基於關聯耦合的水文頻率分析，颱洪災害事件可由最配適的存活關聯耦合的超越機率曲線求解，並利用設計生命週期的概念解釋颱洪災害事件。最終，發現台灣各區域具備相異的颱風事件特性。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2022-11-23T09:04:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-1409202114494200.pdf: 9766603 bytes, checksum: 3d2aca15c69950e516aa2b0342a7ede4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | Table of Contents 口試委員會審定書 # Abstract i 摘要 iii Table of Contents iv List of Tables v List of Figures vi 1 Introduction 1 2 Literature Review 3 3 Material and Methods 7 3.1 Hourly Rainfall Data and Typhoon Database 7 3.2 Pettitt Test 9 3.3 Mann–Kendall Test 11 3.3.1 Test statistics and the estimators 11 3.3.2 Proposed processes for the Mann–Kendall test 14 3.4 Dependence Modeling with Copulas 16 3.4.1 Measures of concordance and tail dependence 18 3.4.2 Random sampling 20 3.4.3 Copula families 21 3.4.4 Inference 25 3.4.5 Applications 27 4 Results and Discussion 28 4.1 Bernoulli Random Variables for Pettitt Test 28 4.2 Factors Influencing the Mann–Kendall test 29 4.3 Detection of Climate Change on Maximum Rainfall Series 56 4.3.1 Annual maximum rainfall 56 4.3.2 Event maximum rainfall 60 4.4 Properties of Copulas 66 4.5 Copula-based Frequency Analysis 79 5 Conclusions 87 References 90 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.title | 降雨量趨勢偵測與關聯耦合應用於水文頻率分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Rainfall Trend Detection and Copula-Based Hydrological Frequency Analysis | en |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 黃文政(Hsin-Tsai Liu),溫在弘(Chih-Yang Tseng),胡明哲 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 變遷偵測,趨勢偵測,關聯耦合,設計生命水平,水文頻率分析, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Change detection,Trend detection,Copula,Design life level,Hydrological frequency analysis, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 94 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202103169 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-09-16 | |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 共同教育中心 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 統計碩士學位學程 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 統計碩士學位學程 | |
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