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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 胡明哲(Ming-Che Hu) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Po-Chun Ho | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 何伯峻 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-23T09:02:41Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-11-08 | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-11-23T09:02:41Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2021-11-08 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-09-30 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Rao, K. N. (2010). Index Based Crop Insurance. Agriculture and Agricultural ScienceProcedia, Volume 1, 193–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2010.09.024 Shirsatha, P., Vyasa , S., Aggarwala , P., Rao, K. N. (2019). Designing Weather IndexInsurance of Crops for the Increased Satisfaction of Farmers, Industry and the Government. Climate Risk Management, Volume 25(100189). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100189 Conradt , S., Finger , R., Spörria, M. (2015). Flexible Weather Index-BasedInsurance Design. Climate Risk Management, Volume 10, 106–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.003 Turvey , C. G., Woodard , J., Liu , E. (2014). Financial Engineering for the Farm Problem. Agricultural Finance Review, 74(2). https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/AFR-05-2014-0010/full/html Wang, S., Herzog, E. D., Kiss, I. Z., Schwartz, W. J., Bloch, G., Sebek, M., Granados-fuentes, D., Wang, L., Li, J. (2018). Inferring Dynamic Topology for Decoding Spatiotemporal Structures in Complex Heterogeneous Networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(37), 9300–9305. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721286115 Kusuma, A., Jackson , B., Noy, I. (2018). A Viable and Cost-Effective Weather Index Insurance for Rice in Indonesia. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 43, 186–218. https://doi.org/10.1057/s10713-018-0033-z Daron , J. D., Stainforth, D. A. (2014). Assessing Pricing Assumptions for Weather Index Insurance in a Changing Climate. Climate Risk Management, 1, 76–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2014.01.001 Xu , J. D., Pu, L. (2014). Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural Output. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(11), 2537–2545. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60674-7 Ye, T., Li, Y., Gao, Y., Wang , J., Yi, M. (2017). Designing Index-Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Snow Disaster Risk in Eastern Inner Mongolia, China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 23, 160–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.04.013 Eze, E., Girma, A., A.zenebe, A., Zenebe, G. (2020). Feasible Crop Insurance Indexes for Drought Risk Management in Northern Ethiopia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 47(101544). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101544 Ho, S., Ifft, J. E., A.rickard , B. J., Turvey, C. G. (2018). Alternative Strategies to Manage Weather Risk in Perennial Fruit Crop Production. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 47(3). https://doi.org/10.1017/age.2017.29 Kath, J., Mushtaq, S., Henry, R., Adeyinka, A., Stone, R. (2018). Index Insurance Benefits Agricultural Producers Exposed to Excessive Rainfall Risk. Weather and Climate Extremes, 22, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.003 Han , X., Zhang , G., Xie , Y., Yin , J., Zhou , H., Yang , Y., Li , J., Bai, W. (2019). Weather Index Insurance for Wind Energy. Global Energy Interconnection, 2, 541–548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloei.2020.01.008 Pu, C., Chen, Y., Pan, X. (2018). Weather Indexes, Index Insurance and Weather Index Futures. Insurance Markets and Companies, 9(1), 32–40. https://doi.org/10.21511/ins.09(1).2018.04 Song, F., Zhao, J., Swinton, S. M. (2011). Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(3), 768–783. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aar018 張明郎(2011)，番石榴產業發展現況，臺中區農產改良場特凼。108，1-9。https://doi.org/10.29563/ZHWHGX.201109.0001 Kreyszig, E., Kreyszig, H., Norminton, E. J. (2018). ADVANCED ENGINEERING MATHEMATICS (10th ed.). JOHN WILEY SONS, INC., ISBN 978-0-470-45836-5 Sigman, K. (2007). Simulating Normal (Gaussian) Rvs with Applications to Simulating Brownian Motion and Geometric Brownian Motion in One and Two Dimensions. http://www.columbia.edu/~ks20/4703-Sigman/4703-07-Notes-BM-GBM-I.pdf 行政院農業委員會農業金融局網站，推動農業保險(2020年9月7日)。檢自https://www.boaf.gov.tw/boafwww/index.jsp?a=ct xItem=955232 ctNode=464#top (2021年8月28日) 農產品批發市場交易行情站，水果行情，檢自https://amis.afa.gov.tw/fruit/FruitChartProdTransPriceVolumeTrend.aspx (2021年8月28日) 行政院，本院新聞:行政院會通過農業保險法草案(2019年7月18日)。檢自https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/9277F759E41CCD91/2dfebf11-2cfe-4969-8ecb-2b9762806911 (2021年8月28日) 行政院農業委員會，農業統計資料查詢 (2021年7月16日)。檢自https://agrstat.coa.gov.tw/sdweb/public/book/Book.aspx (2021年8月28日) 台北農產運銷股份有限公司，休市日查詢。檢自http://www.tapmc.com.taipei/Pages/Market/Rest (2021年8月28日) | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/79522 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 氣候變遷與地球暖化是目前國際最關注的議題之一，劇烈變化的天氣導致農業生產的風險高升，如何持續農產品供給及穩定農產業經濟成為重要議題。在這篇文章中我們嘗試利用動態系統模型與幾何布朗運動模型模擬台灣主要果菜市場的番石榴品項交易價格及交易量，並以此估計番石榴的每單位面積產值，利用估計的每單位面積產值計算往後數年的淨現值，以收入保障型與天氣參數型保險評估相關的避險效果。 研究發現農業保險可以有效的避免高額損失發生的風險，藉由淨現值方法發現採取保險手段後每單位面積番石榴產量有顯著的提升，然而動態模型推估的產值其值與分散度等不確定性仍存在討論與改進的空間。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2022-11-23T09:02:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-2809202100430000.pdf: 1377911 bytes, checksum: 74185d935f0fe4f180101d4b8dda1473 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 i Abstract ii 目錄 iii 表目錄 iv 圖目錄 v 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機 1 第二節 農業保險與現況 1 第三節 台灣番石榴產銷情形 5 第四節 相關文獻 12 第五節 論文架構 13 第二章 方法論 14 第一節 價量動態模型 14 第二節 淨現值法 18 第三章 分析流程與結果 21 第四章 討論 37 參考文獻 40 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.title | 農產價格之系統動態模型及風險分析:以番石榴為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | System dynamics and risk analysis of agricultural commodity price: A case study of guava | en |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 游景雲(Hsin-Tsai Liu),陳憲宗(Chih-Yang Tseng),陳郁蕙,何率慈 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 系統動態,番石榴,農業保險,幾何布朗運動,淨現值, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | System dynamics,Guava,Crop insurance,Geometric Brownian motion, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 43 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202103417 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-10-04 | |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 共同教育中心 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 統計碩士學位學程 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 統計碩士學位學程 | |
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| U0001-2809202100430000.pdf | 1.35 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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