國營轉上市公司的企業價值與未來價值經營之分析 —以台肥公司為例

Abstract

國營事業轉上市公司因為公司特質，具備知名度、消費者信賴感、寡占市場的領導者、健全的財務體質、擁有較多政策的行政資源等，本研究目的希望透過企業評價方法分析國營事業轉上市公司營業活動創造的收益價值為多少?股價表現是否有被低估?「資源價值」是否有極大化運用?本研究以台肥公司為例，透過企業評價的方法進行台肥個案分析。 本研究利用資產基礎法評價台肥的資源價值，自由現金流量折現法評價台肥收益創造的合理股價，戈登股利成長模型試算台肥的股利價值。最終本研究發現台肥股價的確被低估，並得到以下5點結論： (1) 台肥以資產基礎法評估的企業價值，發現台肥資產重置的價值高，代表台肥的資源價值是土地資產所創造，應作土地資源管理。 (2) 從收益法評估營業活動的收益價值雖不低，但收益創造包含肥料本業獲利、轉投資朱肥獲利、出售土地等三種獲利結構所組成，其中包含出售土地的一次性獲利，台肥公司獲利結構需要調整。 (3) 不論公司是否獲利，每年現金股利幾乎固定，但股利價值仍低於當時上市掛牌價(50元)，顯示台肥經營效率並沒有因為轉為上市公司而轉佳。 (4) 研究得到台肥不同價值的順序：資源價值>收益價值>每股淨值>股利價值>股價，台肥股價明顯被低估，突顯公司財務決策與經營策略的問題。 (5) 台肥股價被低估，投資利差大且投資風險小，且公司財務體質極佳，公司資源價值高，容易引發市場覬覦，農委會全面掌控台肥的型態面臨挑戰。 台肥公司股價被低估，面臨的問題包括政府全面掌控的經營型態受到挑戰、公司財務決策與經營策略都需要改變。本研究試著提出問題與建議，希望提供台肥公司不同的經營思維。

Because of the company's characteristics, the state-owned enterprise re-listed company owned the reputation, consumer trust, oligopolistic market leader, perfect financial constitution, and more policy administrative resources etc. The purpose of this study is to analyze a state-owned enterprise re-listing company about how much the value of revenue generated by the business activities? Is the share price performance underestimated? Has the 'resource value' been maximized? Through enterprise evaluation methods and take Taiwan Fertilizer Company as the project analyze. This study finds out the stock price of Taiwan Fertilizer Company is underestimated with Asset Approach to estimate the resources value, the Discounted Cash Flow Method to evaluate the reasonable stock price created by revenue, the Gordon dividend growth model to test the dividend value and the following five conclusions were obtained: 1. The enterprise value assessed by Asset Approach of Taiwan Fertilizer found that the value of assets replacement is high. It means that the resource value of Taiwan Fertilizer is created by land assets and the land resource management should be essential. 2. To estimate the value of revenue by income approach, it composed of the income of original fertilizer business, re-investment Al-Jubail Fertilizer Company and sale of land. But the sale of land is disposable profit will affect the earning structure and it needs to be adjustment. 3. The annual cash dividend is almost fixed whether the profitable or not. The dividend value is still lower than the listing price (NT$50), indicating the operating efficiency of Taiwan Fertilizer Company has not been improved by the conversion to a listed company. 4. The order in which the different values of Taiwan Fertilizer Company were studied: resource value> earnings value> net value per share> dividend value> stock price. The share price is apparent undervaluation and it highlights the problems of the financial decision-making and business strategy. 5. Due to the underestimated share price, large investment spreads, low investment risks, perfect financial constitution and high value of resource, the company easily lead to market coveted. The pattern of fully control Taiwan Fertilizer Company by The Council of Agriculture is facing challenges. The stock price of Taiwan Fertilizer Company is undervalued, the problems facing government’s comprehensive control business model are challenged, and the financial decisions and management strategies need to be adjustment. This study attempts to submit questions and suggestions to provide the different business cogitation for Taiwan Fertilizer Company.