寡占市場下DRAM產業供需分析

Abstract

DRAM（Dynamic Random Access Memory）產業在三十年來，全世界二十多家來自美國、歐洲、日本、台灣、韓國生產DRAM，直到2014年美光(Micron Technology)完成併購爾必達，標準型DRAM只剩三星(Samsung)、海力士(SK Hynix)及美光三大公司。本研究除介紹DRAM產業外，將全球DRAM產業的現況及整併作分析，並根據三大公司相關資料，深入分析近幾年來DRAM產業的特性、變化及趨勢，也提及近年來台灣DRAM產業的現況。對於DRAM供給需求方面，從全球景氣對DRAM的影響，到DRAM供給需求的各產業相關因子，作全面的檢討。 由於三星、海力士、美光DRAM這三大公司的2105年第四季營收占有率已超過92%，形成寡占市場。在這市場上，個別決策行為會互相合作或牽制，可用賽局理論來分析彼此間的決策模式。藉此研究來推論這三大公司的理論及實際的決策是否相同。另2016年底，華亞科技預定併入美光公司，因此針對新美光集團的價值鏈、STEP、五力分析等方式作深入關鍵競爭要素的探討。 本研究分析這幾年DRAM市場的變化及獲利情況，並分析這三家公司中DRAM市占率最低、技術較落後及獲利不佳的美光公司，分析該公司的能力及未來可能的策略。本研究也指出美光公司唯有對新記憶體的開發及與英特爾加強3D XPoint的研發及量產的技術，可能在幾年後直接取代現有DRAM技術，量產取代DRAM及NAND的產品，才能擺脫技術落後及成本太高的困境。在需求面美光必須發展高階產品需求及緊密的與強勢品牌策略合作，以增進品牌價值來擺脫困境。

Over the past 30 years, more than 20 companies worldwide, including companies from United States of America, Europe, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, have joined the manufacturing of DRAM products. Not until Micron merged Elpida in year 2014, are there only three major standard DRAM companies, which are Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, left in the market and the DRAM industry became an oligopolistic one. This research aims to analyze the status and consolidation of the global DRAM industry by taking an in-depth analysis into its characteristics, changes and trends based on the data of the three major DRAM companies. We also provide an update on Taiwan DRAM market in recent years, in light of a thorough DRAM demand and supply review from a global economy perspective. As combined revenue exceeded 92% of total market share in the 4th quarter of 2015, the major DRAM suppliers, Samsung, Hynix and Micron have made DRAM an oligopolistic market, in which an individual decision making will affect others. Therefore we could employ a Game theory framework to analyze the decisions made by three oligopolists. With Inotera Memories Inc. to be merged into Micron Technology at the end of 2016, we’ll have in-depth discussion on the new Micron camp’s key competitiveness from Value Chain, STEP, Five Forces, points of view.

This research analyze the profitability of the DRAM market in the past few years with a particular focus on the abilities and possible future strategies of Micron Technology, the one with the lowest DRAM market share, fall-behind technology and poor profitability among the three major suppliers. This research suggests that Micron should continue its development on new memory products and reinforce its cooperation with Intel on the research and mass production technology of 3D XPoint. Only with production in large volume that can replace current DRAM and NAND products in the next few years so that Micron can change its technologically inferior position in the traditional DRAM and NAND industries. In addition, Micron has to develop high-end premium products, combined with a strong brand strategy, to enhance its value to get out of the mud.