朴槿惠時期韓中關係演變之研究(2013-2016)

Abstract

作為我國重要的鄰國之一，韓國這些年來面臨與台灣相似的國際環境。一方面是必須維繫與傳統盟邦美國之間的聯結，以保障自身安全；另一方面，則是寄望於新興崛起的中國，希望能夠為其帶來更大的國家利益。然而，在美中兩大強權之間的權力爭奪日益激烈的情況下，韓國逐漸面臨魚與熊掌不可兼得的狀況，被迫必須做出明確的抉擇。但是，這種選邊站的相關作為，結果卻往往會使韓國遭受來自於另一國的巨大壓力，甚至報復行為，使韓國遭受不小損失。因此，韓國是如何盤算自身的利益得失，進而做出相關的外交政策，就成為有意研究東亞的學者值得注意的重點。 相較於韓美關係，韓中關係近年來的發展可謂是高潮迭起。特別是在朴槿惠時期，韓國的對中政策轉變幅度之大令人嘖嘖稱奇。朴槿惠總統是在2013年2月正式就職，在其迄今為止約莫四年的執政期間之內，韓中關係的發展已發生了兩次重大的改變。首先，在執政的前半期，朴槿惠總統被外界不少人認為是所謂的親中派，其對中政策態度與前任的李明博政府之間有著明顯的差異存在。朴槿惠政府在上台後，大力推動韓中雙邊的彼此交流。然而，朴槿惠政府這些舉動，明顯與韓國重要盟邦美國的利益有所不合，因此引發不少質疑認為韓國是否有意擺脫原先對於韓美同盟的依賴。但隨著北韓在2016年1月再度進行核試驗之後，朴槿惠政府的對中政策又再度發生了重大轉變。北韓的核試驗，使朴槿惠政府似乎又轉向原先韓國傳統上全面依靠美國的外交路線，並宣布將在朝鮮半島部屬薩德反導彈系統。此舉引發來自中國方面的強烈抗議，並使韓中關係受到嚴重的衝擊。換言之，整個韓中關係的演變在短短四年內，歷經從快速接近到急速降溫，其轉變幅度之大與速度之快都使外人瞠目結舌。 造理而言，韓國應該極力避免在中美兩大國之間進行明確選擇，如此才能保障其最大的國家利益。但是朴槿惠總統執政下的韓國外交政策，卻是如此地走向分明，甚至會不惜因為選擇靠向美中一方而得罪另一方，明顯對韓國而言不是最佳考量。是故，朴槿惠政府究竟是為何在前後期的對中政策上會有如此之大的差異出現？是基於何種考量來決定韓中之間的關係發展？都是本論文將欲探討的問題所在。 因此，本論文將通過收集相關的文獻資料，以現實主義的角度，來分析影響朴槿惠時期韓中關係演變之主要原因。並通過比較各個時期韓國政府的對中政策，來判斷類似因素是否持續在影響著當前韓中關係的發展，並以此預測近期韓中關係可能的走向。

This paper is going to discuss the evolution of the relation between South Korea and China under the Park Geun-Hye administration. As we know, South Korea is an important nation in the East Asia region. The position of South Korea make it a crucial factor in geopolitics. Especially since the jostling between China and the United States became more fierce after the Obama administration announced the Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy in 2011, South Korea is one of the key factors to decide whether China or the United States can have the upper hand in the East Asia region. On one hand, this situation gave South Korea to negotiate in its own national interest, but on the other hand, it also put South Korea under much more pressure from both sides. Park Geun-hye became the president of South Korea in 2013. In the first three years of her presidency, President Park seemed to be pro-China. The main goal of her foreign policies in this period was to strengthen the tie between China and South Korea. Even though President Park faced lots of stress from the traditional alliance between South Korea and the United States, she stiil continued to develop a better relation with the Xi government. However, the Park Geun-hye administration changed its diplomatic direction suddenly in 2016. South Korea’s determination to deploy its US THAAD anti-missile systems is widening the rift with its powerful neighbour China, who has urged Seoul to reconsider its decision. However, the Park Geun-hye administration insisted the deployment regardless of the opposition from China. Therefore, the relation between South Korea and China deteriorated unexpectedly in 2016. In short, the relation between South Korea and China changed a lot under the Park Geun-hye administration. As a result, the research purpose of this paper is to explain why the foreign policies of the Park Geun-Hye administration changed. What kind of factors behind the the Park Geun-Hye administraion influenced the decision in the policymaking process? Last but not least, according to the factors we found in this paper, we hope to predict the possible development of the relation between the two countries in the near future.