紅色供應鏈衝擊之下如何選股—以連接器產業為例

Abstract

在紅色供應鏈崛起之下，台灣電子產業面臨極大衝擊，許多上市櫃公司將要面對轉型的狀況，但是轉型必非一蹴可及，過程未必能夠成功，如何找出的有轉型成功或是跡象的公司是每個投資人都想要了解的。 本論文以連接器產業的公司為研究範圍，1.從產業的發展角度宏觀分析未來發展，2.搭配公司的既有核心能力，3.再從年報、財報的判讀，及4.公司訪談結果，來分析判斷公司轉型是否順利，作為投資與否判斷。 從研究發現，台灣廠商要有較佳的機會跟經營績效，跟隨這美日大廠的往高端新興應用發展方向，將可以得到較高機會，其中美系廠商著重布局基礎通信設備與新能源系統所需之連接器，日系廠商則著重布局高精密型微小板類連接器、輸出入連接器、充電連接器、電池連接器。

With the advent of Chinese suppliers (also known as “The Red Supply Chain), members of the Taiwanese electronics industry are under tremendous pressure. In order to cope with new competition from their Chinese counterparts, many publicly listed companies in Taiwan have to adapt and adjust to new challenges. Such transformations, however, will not take place overnight. Instead, these companies are faced with high probabilities of failure. As such, it is paramount for every diligent investor to learn to identify those companies with signs or great potential of achieving such transformation. Using detailed information of a listed company in Taiwan, which engages in the business of manufacturing electronic connectors (an important component), this paper seeks to examine the worthiness of a company as an investment target.

The scope of the research will include the following: 1. Opportunities in the industry 2. Core competence of the company 3. Analysis of Annual report 4. Interview with company management Once the above exercise is complete, we can determine whether the company’s transition is successful, and make a more thorough decision on whether an investment in the company would be worthwhile. From the research, it is found that Taiwanese companies have better opportunities and business performance. Following the development direction of high-end new applications from US and Japanese companies, they will have higher opportunities. Among them, US-based companies will lay emphasis on the layout of basic communications equipment and new energy systems. The required connectors, Japanese companies are focusing on the layout of high-precision micro board connector, input and output connectors, charging connectors, battery connectors.