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The Simulation and Analysis for Joint Probability Method in Urban Area Inundation
Joint probability method,Latin hypercube sampling,flood modeling,
|Publication Year :||2016|
This research uses the joint probability method as the analysis treatment, and the study areas are Ta Liao Keng and Wayaogou in New Taipei City. The joint probability method (JPM) is the major treatment, and hydrology conditions are considered at the same time. There are four hydrology conditions in each study area, including three precipitation stations and one outlet water surface elevation. The cumulative density functions (CDF) of these conditions are divided into stratums of equal marginal probability, random sampled with the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), and 100 input condition sets are produced. After running the simulations with the collaboration model of 2D overland flow, 1D river flow and 1D rainwater sewer, the outcomes with probability of occurrence from 1% to 20% are compared with the outcomes of the traditional simulation treatment that all the input hydrology conditions have the same probability of occurrence.
The maximum flood depth of five chosen locations and the flood area of the study areas are conducted analysis and comparison. Under the same probability of occurrence and location, the maximum-flood depths obtained by the traditional simulation treatment are higher than the ones obtained by JPM, especially when the probability of occurrence is between 1% and 4%. Besides, under the same probability of occurrence the flood areas obtained by the traditional simulation treatment are larger than the ones obtained by JPM in the two study areas. In summary, with the same probability of occurrence, the predictions of the traditional simulation treatment are higher than the predictions of JPM in the aspects of maximum-flood depth and flood area.
|Appears in Collections:||生物環境系統工程學系|
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