車用電子產業分析

Abstract

2017年預估乘用車全球銷售量將會達到將近九千五百萬台，年成長率一般預估為3%左右，雖然成長率不高，但由於計算的基期大，麥肯錫研究機構預估於2030年汽車相關供應鏈的產值將會提升到5.2兆美元。其成長的動能來自於汽車越來越電子化，相關電子設備的效能及價格都提升，包括自動駕駛輔助系統、通訊聯網能力、軟體能力、資訊娛樂能力等相關設備的進化都將帶給產業新的商機。除此之外，政府法規以及消費者的要求日益精進，迫使車廠必須提供更符合市場需求的車款，例如具有胎壓檢測系統、電動車或是小型車款等。 本研究所採用的產業分析模式為產業經濟學分析法(I-O分析)，透過分析產業的基本狀況、市場結構、廠商行為及廠商績效等四大構面來分析汽車產業的未來發展方向以及如何改變現有供應鏈。並以Intel併購以色列廠商Mobileye為實例分析，探討背後的商業邏輯決策。由於內在的需求及外在的產業動能影響，汽車產業及其供應鏈正處於一個不穩定的時期，許多非傳統汽車整車的廠商都企圖切入供應鏈瓜分市場利潤，而最快速切入市場的方式就是透過大量併購來取得技術及資源，近年來的汽車相關的併購金額越來越高，新進廠商如科技大廠(Apple、Google)，晶片大廠(Intel、Nvidia、Qualcomm)，新興車廠(BYD、Tesla)等夾帶著大量資金優勢或技術優勢開始佈局車用市場，傳統車廠與新進入供應鏈廠商的競合關係將會決定未來汽車產業的發展態勢。 而本研究透過搜集次級資料分析認為(1)整合車廠依舊掌握汽車電子供應鏈，但利潤下滑(2) 軟體科技廠將切入車載資訊娛樂系統，硬體晶片廠切入車載電腦。

The statistic from McKinsey automotive trend report displays the projected sales volume of passenger cars will reach 95 billion in 2017 with approximately 3% annual growth rate and the relative automotive market value will reach 5.2 trillion in 2030. Electrified vehicles energize the automotive industry as the price and utility of automotive electronics are improved a lot nowadays including Advance Driver Assistance System(ADAS), communication and internet of things, software and infotainment system. Besides, the car regulation and customer requirement give manufactures additional incentives to produce new model of vehicles, for example, vehicles with tire-pressure monitoring system (TPMS), electric cars or small size cars to cater to the changing market demand. This essay first undertook the perspective of industry organization (I-O Analysis) to evaluate the future development of automotive industry and how this trend will change the existed value chain by analyzing the market basic conditions, market structure, market conduct and market performance. Intel-Mobileye merger will be taken as an example to explain the business strategy behind the scene. The dynamics of both internal demand and external regulation have started to shift the automotive value chain to a potentially disruptive decade, and many untraditional companies are trying to jump into the automotive market by executing larger mergers and acquisitions to enrich their technology ability and automotive market resources. Technical giants (Apple、Google) ，chip giants (Intel、Nvidia、Qualcomm) and new car makers (BYD、Tesla) seek to expand their business in the automotive industry with abundant cash flows and strong technology. The Co –opetition between these new entries will decide the automotive competition posture. Considering the secondary information collecting for this research, we conclude that (1) traditional car makers are still the leading firms in the automotive value chain with lower margin (2) technical giants will expand their business in infotainment system while chip giants will get a foot into automotive brain market.