人口結構與都會區房價決定因素之研究

Abstract

本研究探討人口結構、總體經濟因素及政府政策對臺灣都會區中古屋房價的影響，研究樣本自2001年至2018年間月資料，選擇臺北市、新北市、桃園市、新竹地區、臺中市及高雄市等六個台灣都會區，總計1512個樣本觀察值。 實證結果發現，老年撫養比變動率、生育率、淨遷入、五大行庫平均房貸利率變動率、躉售物價指數變動率及實價登錄政策對台灣都會區中古屋價有顯著負向影響。相對而言，就業人口成長變動率、每人每月工時變動率、租金指數、股票市場股價指數、M1B貨幣供給、經濟成長率及消費者物價指數變動率，對中古屋房價有顯著正向的影響。

This study explores the impact of demographic factors, Macroeconomic Factors and Government Policy on Used-Residential Housing Price in Metropolitan Areas, and the sample period is from 2001 through 2018, containing six domestic metropolitan area’s data, including Taipei City, the New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City. Research sample includes 1512 observations. Our empirical results indicate that there is a significant negative correlation between old age dependency ratio, Fertility Rate, Net Immigrants, mortgage interest rates, Wholesale Price Index, Actual Price Registration and Used-Residential Housing Price; a significant positive correlation between employed population growth rate, Per Monthly hours for Work, House Rent Price Index, Stock Price Index, M1B Money supply, Rate of Economic Growth, Consumer Price Index and Used-Residential Housing Price.