以層級貝式模型探討東協經濟整合對區域內各國家戶生活水平的影響

Abstract

自2007年東協經濟共同體藍圖建立以來，區域內經濟體加速整合。過往在貿易自由化以及歐洲經濟共同體的研究上，可以看到經濟整合對不同發展程度國家產生不一的影響，處於快速起飛階段的東協國家也不例外，除涵蓋世界近三分之一人口，彼此間巨大的發展差異，更加深探究東協經濟整合對各國影響的重要性。然而，多數東南亞國家資料的稀少性，以及不同程度的資料完備性造成在探究此問題上的困難度。在我們的研究中，利用層級貝式模型在不同層級參數估計互補的優勢，使我們能夠有效地估計東協經濟整合對區域內各國產生的經濟衝擊。根據模型估計的結果，我們印證「富者越富，貧者越貧」的現象同樣出現在東協國家當中，區域當中較先進的國家得益於更緊密的貿易連結以及吸引大量勞動力的輸入；相反的，區域內相對較落後的國家則面臨人才以及外國投資的流失。除此之外，我們的研究針對基礎建設在經濟整合的中介效果上也有正面的發現，資通訊基礎建設能夠促進經濟整合對各國生活水平的提升，創造加乘效果。

In recent decades, Southeast Asian countries are moving toward a more integrated regional economy. The wide development gap and asymmetric impacts among countries highlight the importance of studying integration effects for individual member states. However, the reality of limited data among these countries and multilevel data structure cause severe problems for conventional estimation methods. In this research, we demonstrate three types of hierarchical Bayesian models to analyze the impacts of economic integration and the intermediate effects of domestic infrastructures. The best results from the non-centered parameterization model verify previous research showing “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer” during the integration process. More advanced economies in the region benefit from more connected trade relationships and the inflow of migrant workers. In contrast, less developed countries suffer from the outflow of capitals and brain drain. However, we also find promising evidence that governments can improve living standards through developing information communication technology infrastructures, which can facilitate additional positive contribution toward living standards during the process of integration.