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標題: | 整合物質流分析與生命週期評估探討台灣水-能源-糧食交織系統的環境衝擊 Integrating Material Flow Analysis with Life Cycle Assessment to Analyze Environmental Impacts of Water-Energy-Food Nexus System in Taiwan |
作者: | Kuo-Lun Feng 馮國倫 |
指導教授: | 馬鴻文(Hwong-Wen Ma) |
關鍵字: | 水-能源-糧食交織,物質流分析,生命週期評估,都市代謝,資源調適策略評估, Water-Energy-Food Nexus,life cycle assessment,material flow analysis,urban metabolism,scenarios analysis, |
出版年 : | 2019 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 隨水、能源、糧食資源需求與關聯性日益增加,水能糧資源管理策略的選擇從以往以解決單一問題為導向的思維模式,逐漸被考量資源彼此鍵結關係的交織思維方式所取代。同時考量三者間相互依賴和影響的關係,被認為能避免問題轉移與帶來好處。
WEF Nexus概念雖已被廣泛接受,但因其涉及的面向廣且相對新穎,目前多數WEF Nexus相關文獻僅為替水能糧資源管理策略點出指導方針,對於管理策略的選擇並無一套系統性分析的標準方法。因水能糧資源之間的關聯性錯綜複雜,若透過運用定量評估工具提供將議題數值化的方法,能使決策者有更好的決策依據。本研究即欲運用定量評估工具,從都市代謝的角度出發,以我國為案例分析大尺度水能糧系統環境衝擊之間的關聯性,以供決策參考。 工具選擇上,將物質流分析與生命週期評估進行整合。運用物質流分析釐清水能糧資源從生產到消費過程,以了解各社會經濟部門與水能糧資源部門的角色與作用。再以生命週期評估方法量化環境衝擊作為評估指標。在整體衝擊計算上特別區分水能糧子系統與交織總系統兩種計算方式。同時為檢討資源流量交織係數對結果的影響性,以現況水能糧物質流分析為基礎建立交織關係係數矩陣,針對交織係數進行敏感度分析,而後以目前政府對未來水能糧資源管理策略為情境調整交織係數,以多部門策略情境與單部門策略情境交互比較,觀察多部門策略下策略之間的交互影響作用。由敏感度分析與情境分析的結果,評估在資源需求相同下因為交織關係改變對不同系統環境衝擊的影響。 由現況物質流分析盤查資源流量與流向的結果所建立的交織係數矩陣,可以發現我國以自來水系統、煉油、汽電共生、熱電電廠、灌溉、畜牧、養殖等過程需要水能糧資源投入,而其中自來水廠、公共電廠、汽電共生廠、煉油廠具有以彼此最終產品為需要的雙向關係,故相關最終產品環境衝擊受彼此牽動。 依ReCiPe方法評估環境衝擊之中點類別衝擊指標,在現況水能糧供應結構下,總系統之公用電力在氣候變遷等五項衝擊項;油品在臭氧耗用、游離輻射;自來水在金屬耗用;畜牧產品在陸地生態毒性對衝擊的貢獻最大。其中公用電力以工業需求最大,自來水、畜產品以住宅部門需求最大,油品以出口需求最大。 從現況子系統環境衝擊交織關係上來看,水系統除人體健康、海洋毒性、水資源耗用、金屬耗用項外,能源系統對其餘衝擊影響力巨大。能源系統衝擊貢獻多來自於自身,水系統僅對水資源耗用項具有影響力。糧食系統臭氧耗用、游離輻射、燃料耗用能源系統對其具有一定影響力。 以現況為基礎分析16項交織係數的對衝擊結果的敏感度,發現係數以漏水率對總、水、能系統在溫室氣體、水資源耗用與金屬耗用影響力皆為頭幾大。 以情境分析未來資源管理策略的結果發現,目前政府主要規劃之水能調適策略同時採用的情境,相較於採用單一策略的情境,總系統在陸地生態毒性、淡水生態毒性等衝擊項目衝擊更上升,在水資源耗用、金屬耗用等衝擊項目更具環境效益。但若以子系統來看,對水系統而言在如氣候變遷等七項衝擊項,新興水資源開發計畫造成之衝擊雖在非核家園發電結構下有所減緩,但仍高於基本情境,主要還需靠自身改善水能交織係數。 本研究運用物質流分析結合生命週期評估的方法,將複雜多樣的水能糧資源產品換成環境衝擊指標,使得不同類型資源得到統一的比較標準,並評估不同情境水能糧技術組合下,水能糧系統之間的關聯性。藉由本研究增進對水能糧交織代謝的了解,以期能促進跨部門的協同合作。 As water, energy and food resource demands and interdependencies continue to increase, the WEF resource management strategies of a single problem-oriented thinking mode have been gradually replaced bythe nexus thinking mode attaching importance to the relationship between different resources. By this way, it is considered to avoid problem transfer and bring co-benefits. However, although the WEF Nexus concept has been widely accepted, most of the current literature on WEF Nexus only provides guidelines for resource management. There is no standard method for decision making. On account of complex relationship between WEF resources, if quantitative assessment tools are used to provide numerical result for the issue, decision makers can have better decision-making basis. This study intends to use quantitative assessment tools to analyze the correlation of environmental impacts between water, energy and food resources systems on large scales from the perspective of urban metabolism. This study integrates material flow analysis (MFA) with life cycle assessment (LCA) as the tool. MFA is used to clarify the process of water, energy and food from production to consumption to understand the role of various socio-economic sectors and WEF sectors. LCA is used to quantify environmental impact as an evaluation indicator. In the overall impact calculation, the two calculation methods of the WEF subsystem and the total system are distinguished. At the same time, in order to observe the influence of resource nexus relationship on the result, the nexus coefficient matrix established on the basis of the current scenario material flow analysis is used to locate the most influential process in the nexus system regarding environmental impact by a sensitivity analysis. Then, based on the current government's management strategy for the future WEF resources, the nexus coefficient is adjusted as the future scenarios, and the multi-sector strategic scenario are compared with the single-sector strategic scenario. From the results of sensitivity analysis and scenarios analysis, the influences of changes in nexus relationships on the environment impactd of the different system is evaluated under the same resource requirements. By the current scenario MFA, it is found that water treatment, oil refining, steam and electricity symbiosis, thermoelectric power plant, irrigation, livestock, and aquaculture processes require WEF resources which are in the boundary. Among them, the water supply plant, the public power plant, the steam and electricity co-generation plant, and the refinery have bidirectional relationship with each other's final products as needed, so the environmental impact is affected by each other. The midpoint indicators displayed ReCiPe methodology is applied to evaluate the environmental impact. From the current scenario environmental impact result of the total system, the public power contributes the most on seven impact categories such as climate change; the oil product contributes the most on fossil depletion ozone depletion, ionising radiation; the tap water contributes the most on metal depletion; the livestock products contributes the most on terrestrial ecotoxicity. Among them, the public power is the most demanded by the industrial sector; the tap water and the livestock products is the most demanded by residential sector; the oil product is the most demanded by the export. From the current scenario environmental impact result of the subsystem, excluding human toxicity, marine ecotoxicity, water depletion, and metal depletion, the energy system has a main contribution on the rest of the impact in the water system. By contrast, the main contribution of energy system impacts comes from itself, and only on water depletion, the water system is influential. When it come to the food system, ozone depletion, ionising radiation, and fossil depletion energy systems is influential. The sensitivity of the 16 nexus coefficients to the current scenario impact results is analyzed. It is found that the coefficient of water leakage is the first to influence the total, water and energy systems on climate change, water depletion and metal depletion. The future scenarios analysis shows that the water-energy bi-strategy scenario has more impact than the single-strategy scenario on terrestrial ecotoxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity; and more improvement on water depletion and metal depletion for total system. In contrast with total system, for water system, on seven impact categories such as climate change, the impact of the water resources development plan has slowed down under the non-nuclear home power generation structure, but it is still higher than the basic scenario. It is mainly necessary to improve the water energy nexus coefficient by itself. In conclusion, this study uses material flow analysis combined with life cycle assessment methods to convert a variety of products from resource quantities to environmental impact indicators as a unified comparison standard, and assess the environment impact relationship between WEF systems under different scenarios of water-energy technologies. Through this study, we improve the understanding of the metabolism of WEF nexus systems, with a view to promoting cross-sectoral synergy benefit. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/737 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201802027 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 環境工程學研究所 |
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