人民幣雙率市場之國際化研究

Abstract

本論文希望將人民幣過去、現在、未來的國際化進程，做一個綜觀的整理，並透過在第一線外匯交易員的視角，進一步闡述人民幣國際化如何進行實務的操作，對於大陸這個世界第二大的經濟體，在出發點已弱勢下，大陸官方如何全方面的從貿易項下、資本項下及全球央行的外匯儲備，多管齊下的方式來拉抬全球對人民幣的依存度，進而提升人民幣在國際清算的地位，取得全球經貿舉足輕重的話語權! 本論文的重點摘要如下： 1. 解讀由中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所(IMI)發布的人民幣國際化指數(RII) 人民幣國際化指數為大陸官方制定人民幣國際化政策的重要參考指標，透過對人民幣國際化指數的了解，對掌握大陸官方人民幣國際化開放腳步與方向，有助於建構更清晰的輪廓。 2.人民幣在匯率市場之國際化研究透過對離岸人民幣(CNH)與在岸人民幣(CNY)外匯市場實務現況的介紹，進一步了解大陸官方如何推進人民幣在匯率市場的國際化政策，包括：加入特別提款權(SDR)提升在國際貨幣組織(IMF)的地位、一帶一路、原油期貨採人民幣清算、非洲市場的滲透、拉高全球央行外匯儲備貨幣的占比。 3.人民幣在利率市場之國際化研究隨著中美貿易大戰的開打，人民幣在國際化的道路上，必須改弦易轍，著墨在自己可以掌握的資本市場開放腳步上，因此從2016年開始，人民幣國際金融計價交易功能進一步的拓展，包括：從點心債到熊貓債的規模顯著的增長，並發展SDR木蘭債與綠色債，透過結算代理CIBM與債券通方式，對境外大幅開放境內銀行間債券市場，而人民幣計價的國債與政策性債券也於2019年4月納入彭博巴克萊全球綜合指數中，讓人民幣債券正式進入全球的主流債中，為人民幣的國際化再下一城。 4.結語 人民幣國際化依筆者論點是從2012年 12月啟動，就是大陸官方讓境外人民幣業務清算走出香港、澳門開始，因此在邁入第七年之際，人民幣國際化如何配合大陸官方宏觀政策的腳步，擺脫全球逐漸升溫的保護主義及地域性不友善的眼光，從小國到區域再到國際組織，一步一步建構出屬於人民幣的全球清算生態系，才有機會一舉擺脫英鎊及日圓，與美元、歐元並列世界三雄的貨幣地位。

1. Interpretation of the RMB Internationalization Index (RII) issued by International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China：The RMB Internationalization Index is an important reference indicator for the mainland's official formulation of the RMB internationalization policy. Through the understanding of the RMB internationalization index, it is helpful to grasp the footsteps and directions of the mainland's official RMB internationalization, which will help to construct a clearer outline. 2. RMB Internationalization in the foreign exchange market:Through the introduction of the offshore RMB (CNH) and onshore RMB (CNY) foreign exchange market practices, we will learn more about how the mainland government promotes the internationalization of the RMB in the foreign exchange market, including:Joining the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to enhance the status of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Belt and Road Initiative, the Oil futures cleared in RMB , the African market permeated by RMB , and the increase in the RMB ratio of the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves. 3. RMB Internationalization in the interest rate market: With the opening of the US-China trade war, the RMB must change its strategy on the road of internationalization, focusing on the openness of the capital market that China can control its own fate , so from 2016 Initially, the RMB capital market has further expanded, including:From the dim sum bonds to the significant increase in the size of the panda bonds,and the development of SDR Mulan bonds and green bonds, through the settlement agent CIBM and bond connect, the domestic inter-bank bond market is greatly opened to the outside world, and the RMB government bonds and policy bonds will be included in the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index in April 2019, allowing RMB bonds to officially enter the global mainstream bond market, and to further the internationalization of the RMB. 4.Conclusion:The author's argument for the internationalization of the RMB was launched in December 2012. It is the official announcement of the mainland's official RMB business to go out of Hong Kong and Macao. Therefore, as RMB internationalization enter the seventh year, how does the internationalization of the RMB match the official macro policy of the mainland? Get rid of the global warming protectionism and regional unfriendly vision, from small countries to regions to international organizations, step by step to construct a global clearing ecosystem belonging to the RMB, and have the opportunity to overtake the pound(GBP) and the yen(JPY). In the near future ,RMB can rank the top three in the world with the US dollar(USD) and the euro (EUR).