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標題: | 產業朝循環經濟商業模式轉型對我國資源利用及經濟之效益評估-以共享汽車為例 Assessment of Resource Usage and Economic Benefit from Industrial Transformation toward Circular Economy Business Model-Take Car Sharing as an Example |
作者: | Yun-Cheng Lee 李昀晟 |
指導教授: | 馬鴻文(Hwong-Wen Ma) |
關鍵字: | 共享汽車,循環經濟,汽車製造業轉型,CGE 模型,脫鉤, Car Sharing,Circular Economy,Industrial Transformation of Automotive Manufacturing,CGE Model,Decoupling, |
出版年 : | 2019 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 隨著世界人口增加、每人財富增加、消費習慣改變,人類對於資源的需求逐漸上升,而在眾多資源中,金屬資源將於未來造成的環境衝擊最為巨大,特別是鋼鐵的需求,鋼鐵為金屬資源中最主要的環境衝擊來源。而除了環境衝擊之外,人類對資源需求的增加也使資源稀缺問題逐漸嚴重,因資源稀缺主要的問題根源為供給無法應付需求,而資源稀缺會使個別產業及國家面臨供應鏈斷鏈風險、成本風險,以汽車製造業來說,鋼鐵資源稀缺便為主要產業鏈斷鏈風險來源,而以國家整體經濟來說,焦碳、鉻、鐵、鉑、錫等資源對經濟發展甚是重要,但此些資源的供應鏈斷鏈風險卻相對較高。因此,為了減緩環境衝擊並調適資源稀缺問題,藉由循環經濟可控制資源需求量,並能以較少的資源提供相同或更多的服務需求,同時達到經濟發展與資源需求量脫鉤之目的。共享汽車為本文研究的循環經濟案例,因單輛共享汽車可替代多輛私人汽車,並提供相同量的交通服務,使汽車資源有效利用。
本研究利用交通規劃模型計算共享汽車對私人汽車的替代效果,再將該替代效果放入CGE模型,計算替代效果對資源和經濟之影響。研究結果顯示,單台共享汽車可替代市場中6.7輛私人汽車,並於每年減少0.41輛私人汽車售出,因此,若汽車製造業轉型,將汽車產品服務化、提供共享汽車服務,則當共享汽車產業發展到最適發展狀況規模(最大利潤)的十分之一規模時,便能使汽車製造業一年降低約3,070輛汽車生產,進而使汽車製造業對鋼鐵原物料需求量降低0.17 %,並讓整體汽車相關產業(汽車製造業、共享汽車業、汽車租賃業)的一年成本降低3.5億新台幣、GDP (附加價值)增加4億新台幣,同時使汽車相關產業的鋼鐵需求量與產業的GDP成長脫鉤,達到讓汽車相關產業降低鋼鐵資源依賴的目的。然而,汽車製造業部分轉型為共享汽車後,因汽車製造業對上游原物料需求下降,導致上游產業及其他產業經濟體萎縮,造成全國GDP下降約258.5億新台幣(約下降了0.19 %),但也因經濟萎縮,連帶造成共享汽車以外的所有資源總需求量皆降低,而若以脫鉤指標來看的話,除了鋼鐵資源的每單位全國GDP的資源需求量下降以外,其他金屬(鉻、鐵、鉑、錫)及石化燃料方面,單位全國GDP的資源需求量分別是不變及上升。 With the increase of population, wealth per capita and change of consumption habits, the demand of resources will increase sharply in the next decades. Among all kinds of resources, metal is the one which will cause the most significant environmental impact in the future. Besides the environmental impact, due to the fact that the supply of resources could not fulfill the demand, scarcity of resources happened in industries and nations. Resource scarcity will induce risk on industrial supply chain and increase cost. Take automotive manufacturing industry for instance. Scarcity of iron will increase the risk of supply chain disruption. In addition, resources with high risk on supply chain, which include coal, chrome, iron, platinum and tin, are important for national economic growth. Hence, to eliminate the problem from resource scarcity and environmental impact, circular economy is introduced to reduce resource demand and let the resource demand be decoupled from economic growth. So, this research takes car sharing as an example of circular economy. One sharing car can replace many private cars and reduce car production, but does not decrease the traffic service. Traffic programming model is used to evaluate sharing car’s ability to substitute private car. Then, this substitute ability acts as an input of CGE model, and the change of different kinds of resources demand and economic data are the output. The results show that 1 sharing car can substitute 6.7 private car in the market and reduce 0.41 private car sold in a year. As a result, if small part of automotive manufacturing industry is transformed into car-sharing industry, automotive industry could decrease 3,070 cars production per year, which decline the iron usage by 0.17% in automotive manufacturing industry. The transformation also reduces cost of car-relative industry, which include automotive manufacturing, car sharing and car renting, by about 350 million NTD a year and raise GDP of car-relative industry by 400 million NTD a year. Also, the iron usage is decoupled from GDP growth in car-relative industry. However, the transformation makes the national GDP decreased by 25.9 billion NTD, and the fossil fuel demand increase by 0.076 % per national GDP. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/72978 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201901621 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 環境工程學研究所 |
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