後物質主義、價值解放與香港的民主運動：2018年世界價值觀調查的分析

Abstract

近年來香港社會運動的發展風起雲湧，形成一股與平時注重經濟發展甚於政治事務截然不同的氛圍。從對於雨傘運動的分析中，我們發現異於以往，並與之後一系列的抗爭共通的四種特色：年輕世代、佔領、自發參與與堅持自由、民主。為了釐清香港抗爭運動的嶄新樣貌，我們從社會運動理論出發，排除政治機會結構和資源動員論的適用性，決定以構框效果進行分析。從構框的角度來看，群眾的動員機制來自於新的價值觀念重塑了對於現狀的詮釋，進而引發民怨對於公部門的不滿，亦即一國兩制的承諾岌岌可危，香港民眾擔憂自由、民主的生活受到危害，而這正是所謂「價值解放」的過程。 若以上觀察是正確的，則必須證實上街群眾是為民主、自由奮鬥而來，為此我們使用World Value Survey第7波調查的資料，將「後物質主義」作為主要自變項、「參與和平示威」作為依變項，並搭配其他控制變項進行統計分析，結果發現後物質主義確實發揮很大的影響力，足以解釋近年來的抗爭運動。此外我們也發現香港的後物質主義者並不排斥投票行為，與傳統定義相違背。最後，為了凸顯「價值態度」對於社運的影響力，我們使用結構方程模型檢視價值態度、政治行動和政治信任之間的關係，因後者被視為以往香港抗爭的主要成因，結果發現政治信任與其他兩者不存在中介關係，價值態度確實是導致近年來香港社會運動蓬勃發展並異於往常的重要因素。

In recent years, the development of social movements in Hong Kong has grown rapidly, completely different from our long-standing stereotype about putting emphasis on economic development rather than political affairs. From the analysis of the Umbrella Movement, we found four characteristics that are different from the past and shared with the subsequent series of struggles: 'young generation', 'occupation', 'spontaneous participation', and 'persistence in freedom and democracy'. In order to clarify the brand-new look of the Hong Kong protest movement, we proceeded from the theory of social movements, excluded the applicability of the political opportunity structure and resource mobilization theory, and decided to analyze by frame effect. From the view of framing, the mobilization mechanism of the masses comes from the new values that reshape the interpretation of the status quo, which in turn triggers public grievances and dissatisfaction with the public sector. That is, the promise of one country, two systems is at stake, and Hong Kong people worry about their free and democratic life will suffer from this. This process is also called 'value emancipating.' If the above observations are correct, it must be confirmed that the people on the streets are fighting for democracy and freedom. For this reason, we use the data from the seventh wave of the World Value Survey, with 'post-materialism' as the main independent variable, 'participation in peaceful demonstration' as the dependent variable, and combined with other control variables for statistical analysis. It turns out that post-materialism does exert a great influence, which is sufficient to explain the protest movement in recent years. In addition, we also found that post-materialists in Hong Kong do not reject voting behavior, which is contrary to the traditional definition. Finally, in order to highlight the influence of 'value-attitudes' on social movements, we used the Structural Equation Modeling to examine the relationship between value-attitudes, political actions, and political trust, as the latter was regarded as the main cause of the previous Hong Kong protests. We found that political trust has no intermediary relationship with the other two. The value-attitude is indeed an important factor that has led to the vigorous development of social movements in Hong Kong in recent years.