Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/72759Full metadata record
| ???org.dspace.app.webui.jsptag.ItemTag.dcfield??? | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 黃志典 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Yu-Hsien Yang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 楊于賢 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-17T07:05:27Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-08-05 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2019-08-05 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2019 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2019-07-26 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 何慧剛. (2018). 資本帳戶開放, 匯率制度與人民幣國際化. 社會科學輯刊, (3), 133-138.
宋敏. (2011). 走向全球第三大貨幣: 人民幣國際化問題研究. 北京大學出版社. 李宜倩. (2013). 人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣之前景分析. 臺灣大學國際企業學研究所學位論文, 1-51. 李稻葵, & 劉霖林. (2008). 人民幣國際化: 計量研究及政策分析. 金融研究, 11, 1-16. 張明. (2016). 中國資本帳戶開放: 行為邏輯與情景分析. 世界經濟與政治, 4, 139-155. 陳雨露. 走向核心國家: 中國大金融戰略與發展路徑. 2013—05—25. 黃志典. (2015). 人民幣國際化之貿易與金融條件分析. 遠景基金會季刊, 16(2), 145-204. 黃志典. 國際金融: 理論, 政策與應用. 前程文化, 2009. 劉豔靖. (2012). 國際儲備貨幣演變的計量分析研究——兼論人民幣國際化的可行性. 國際金融研究, 4, 71-78. Aliber, R. Z. (1966). The future of the dollar as an international currency. New York: Praeger. Alogoskoufis, G., & Portes, R. (1992). European monetary union and international currencies in a tripolar world. Establishing a central bank: Issues in Europe and lessons from the US, 273-302. Auerbach, J. U., & Azariadis, C. (2015). Property rights, governance, and economic development. Review of Development Economics, 19(2), 210-220. Azman-Saini, W. N. W., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Law, S. H. (2010). Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence. Economic Modelling, 27(5), 1079-1089. Barassi, M. R., & Zhou, Y. (2012). The effect of corruption on FDI: A parametric and non-parametric analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(3), 302-312. Bjørnskov, C., & Foss, N. J. (2016). Institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth: what do we know and what do we still need to know?. Academy of Management Perspectives, 30(3), 292-315. Broz, J. L. (1997). The international origins of the Federal Reserve System. Cornell University Press. Chinn, M., & Frankel, J. (2005). Will the euro eventually surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency? (No. w11510). National Bureau of Economic Research. Cohen, B. J. (1971). Future of sterling as an international currency. Cohen, B. J. (2012). The benefits and costs of an international currency: getting the calculus right. Open Economies Review, 23(1), 13-31. Cohen, B. J. (2014). Will history repeat itself? Lessons for the yuan. Compton, R. A., Giedeman, D. C., & Hoover, G. A. (2011). Panel evidence on economic freedom and growth in the United States. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(3), 423-435. Cooper, R. N. (2000). Key currencies after the euro. In The Euro as a Stabilizer in the International Economic System (pp. 177-201). Springer, Boston, MA. David, P. A. (1986). Narrow windows, blind giants, and angry orphans: The dynamics of systems rivalries and dilemmas of technology policy. Center for Economic Policy Research. David, P. A., & Greenstein, S. (1990). The economics of compatibility standards: An introduction to recent research. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1(1-2), 3-41. Deininger, K., Jin, S., Liu, S., Shao, T., & Xia, F. (2019). Property Rights Reform to Support China’s Rural-Urban Integration. Eichengreen, B. (2011). Exorbitant Privilege: The rise and fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System. Oxford University Press. Eichengreen, B. J. (1996). Golden fetters: the gold standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939. NBER series on long-term factors in economic development. Eichengreen, B., Chiţu, L., & Mehl, A. (2016). Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run. IMF Economic Review, 64(2), 354-380. Fouré, J., Bénassy-Quéré, A., & Fontagné, L. (2012). The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon. Germain, R., & Schwartz, H. (2014). The political economy of failure: The euro as an international currency. Review of International Political Economy, 21(5), 1095-1122. Hongyi, C., Peng, W., & Shu, C. (2009). The potential of the renminbi as an international currency. BIS, Asian Research Programmee. Kenen, P. B. (1960). International liquidity and the balance of payments of a reserve-currency country. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 74(4), 572-586. Kenen, P. B. (2002). The euro versus the dollar: will there be a struggle for dominance?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(4), 347-354. Krugman, P. R. (1980). “Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange,” Journal of Money, Credit, & Banking, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 513-526. Krugman, P. R. (1984). The international role of the dollar: theory and prospect. In Exchange rate theory and practice (pp. 261-278). University of Chicago Press. Lee, J. W. (2014). Will the renminbi emerge as an international reserve currency?. The World Economy, 37(1), 42-62. Lee, L. X. H., & Naya, S. (2017). Chinese Firms and the State in Transition: Property Rights and Agency Problems in the Reform Era: Property Rights and Agency Problems in the Reform Era. Routledge. Li, D. D., & Liu, L. (2010). RMB internationalization: empirical and policy analysis. In Currency Internationalization: Global Experiences and Implications for the Renminbi (pp. 167-185). Palgrave Macmillan, London. Liao, S., & McDowell, D. (2016). No reservations: International order and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currency. International Studies Quarterly, 60(2), 272-293. Lindert, P. H. (1969). Key currencies and gold, 1900-1913 (No. 24). International Finance Section, Princeton University. Linling, L. D. L. (2008). RMB Internationalization: An Empirical and Policy Analysis. Journal of Financial Research, (11), 4. Liu, Z., Spiegel, M. M., & Zhang, J. (2019, May). Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Matthew, C. (2000). The Nineteenth Century: The British Isles 1815-1901. Oxford University Press. McKinnon, R. I. (1998). The Euro Threat is Exaggerated: The us dollar's role as the dominant international currency will remain. International Economy, 12, 32-33. McKinnon, R. I. (2001). The international dollar standard and the sustainability of the US current account deficit. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2001(1), 227-239. Obstfeld, M. (2013). The international monetary system: Living with asymmetry. In Globalization in an age of crisis: Multilateral economic cooperation in the twenty-first century (pp. 301-336). University of Chicago Press. Pierpont, B. (2007). Democracy, property rights and FDI in developing countries: A regional analysis. Honors Projects, 4. Platteau, J. P. (2015). Institutions, social norms and economic development. Routledge. Rey, H. (2001). International trade and currency exchange. The Review of Economic Studies, 68(2), 443-464. Tavlas, G. S. (1997). The international use of the US dollar: an optimum currency area perspective. World Economy, 20(6), 709-747. Walter, A. Domestic Sources of International Monetary Leadership.[Electronic resource]/Walter A. by David Andrews. Cornell University Press: Ithaca, NY.-2006.-Рp, 51-71. Wang, D., Huang, Y., & Fan, G. (2015). Will the Renminbi become a reserve currency?. China Economic Journal, 8(1), 55-73. West, J. (2007). The economic realities of open standards: Black, white and many shades of gray. Standards and Public Policy, 87, 122. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/72759 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究分析影響一國貨幣占國際儲備貨幣份額之重要因素，並以估算模型對各國貨幣之國際儲備貨幣份額進行情境模擬。本研究主要貢獻有兩點，首先，透過考量國家制度面因素，加入對財產權的保障作為代理變數，本研究得以更全面分析人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣前景；其次，本研究模型分別取樣自1976年至2018年、1995年至2018年，透過比較，本文發現經濟規模對國際儲備貨幣份額的影響隨取樣時間不同發生大幅變化；而國際貨幣使用慣性則在不同樣本期間皆發揮幾乎同等的影響力。
過去分析人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣之文獻，多未考量中國社會經濟發展不均衡的特殊性；僅少數研究指出國家制度環境及經濟自由度亦為影響人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣的關鍵因素。本研究成功證明對財產權的保障之於國際儲備貨幣份額的影響具統計顯著性，並利用估計模型進行情境模擬，發現人民幣能否超越、何時超越日圓，成為世界第三大國際儲備貨幣，財產權的保障扮演至關重要角色。另外，本研究利用相同研究對象、不同樣本期間分別建立模型，發現國際貨幣使用慣性在不同樣本期間皆發揮幾乎同等效力，其影響顯著且高度正向，說明對於有潛力崛起、國際化的貨幣而言，當今發展成熟的國際貨幣具備相當程度優勢；同時，隨模型樣本期間越接近現代，經濟規模對國際儲備貨幣份額的影響越低。 中國欲推動人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣，最重要的因素是其自身條件改善，包括完善金融市場發展、完成金融改革以利資本帳戶開放，及加強對財產權的保障，全面提升國家的法治、政府廉潔程度等。若中國無法改善國家制度面因素以增加人民幣對各國的吸引力，則根據本文分析，即使人民幣能超越日圓成為世界第三大國際儲備貨幣，其影響力仍將大幅低於美元及歐元。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper estimates the determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world’s central banks and performs scenario analysis. Two major contributions are provided. Firstly, this paper successfully proves the significance of “Property rights” as a major determinant of the reserve shares. It provides more thorough prospects of Renminbi by taking socio-economic development and institutional factors into account. Secondly, it finds out the effects of inertia are equally high and positive during different period of time；while the effects of economic size differ greatly.
While previous studies focused on the developed countries, this paper aims to illustrate the asymmetry between economic growth and socio-economic development of China. It shows that whether and when will Renminbi eventually surpass Japanese yen would be contingent on the progress of Chinese socio-economic development. Despite having been included in the SDR in 2016, the evolution from within would be more important when it comes to the prospects of Renminbi as an international reserve currency. Significant factors include well-developed financial markets, reform in the financial sector, capital account openness and well-enforced property rights. If China can’t improve its institutional environment to attract foreign investors from both private and public sector, then even it might surpass the Japanese yen to become the third largest international reserve currency, it would still be far less influential than US dollars and euro. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-17T07:05:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-108-R06724043-1.pdf: 1402349 bytes, checksum: 6c5fc3392c74dc11783757f849dcae27 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄
誌 謝 I 摘 要 II ABSTRACT III 目錄 IV 圖目錄 V 表目錄 VI 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 3 第一節 國際貨幣與國際儲備貨幣 3 第二節 國際儲備貨幣發展史 6 第三節 一國貨幣成為國際儲備貨幣的關鍵因素 9 第四節 相關實證研究 13 第三章 研究方法 18 第一節 實證模型與變數說明 18 第二節 應變數與自變數分析 24 第四章 實證結果與分析 29 第一節 實證結果 29 第二節 情境模擬 34 第五章 結論與建議 52 參考文獻 54 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 人民幣 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 情境模擬 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 國境貨幣慣性 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 國際儲備貨幣 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 社經發展程度 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | International reserve | en |
| dc.subject | Renminbi | en |
| dc.subject | Inertia | en |
| dc.subject | Socio-economic development | en |
| dc.title | 人民幣作為國際儲備貨幣之前景分析—基於社會經濟發展程度觀點 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Prospects of Renminbi as an International Reserve Currency—A Perspective of Socio-economic Development | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 107-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 林世銘,廖咸興 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 國際儲備貨幣,人民幣,情境模擬,國境貨幣慣性,社經發展程度, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | International reserve,Renminbi,Inertia,Socio-economic development, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 58 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201901761 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2019-07-26 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 管理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國際企業學研究所 | zh_TW |
| Appears in Collections: | 國際企業學系 | |
Files in This Item:
| File | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ntu-108-1.pdf Restricted Access | 1.37 MB | Adobe PDF |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.