經濟整合對經濟成長的影響－東亞實證研究

Abstract

本研究探討東亞1995年至2014年區域經濟整合與經濟成長的相關性。實證分析採用追蹤資料模型(panel data model)，透過修正Solow經濟成長模型進行迴歸分析，觀察投資、人力資本、初始GDP及經濟整合等解釋變項與經濟成長率的相關性。 研究結果發現東亞經濟整合與經濟成長為顯著正相關，當經濟整合指標提升一個單位，經濟成長率上升0.1069%，顯示東亞各經濟體積極簽署區域貿易協定，對經濟成長有顯著的幫助。此外，研究也發現服務業產值占GDP比例、共產國家等因素，亦會影響區域經濟整合對經濟成長的效果。當一經濟體符合服務業產值占GDP比例高、非共產國家等條件，則經濟整合對經濟成長的正相關效果將更趨強烈。研究者建議政府應更積極簽署區域內具互惠性的區域貿易協定，此舉將有助經濟成長表現。

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the regional economic integration and the economic growth during 1995 to 2014 in East Asia. This study adopts the empirical analysis based on panel data model with the regression analysis of modified Solow Growth Model to observe the relationship between four independent variables like the investment, human capital, initial GDP and the economic integration and the economic growth. The result of this study reveals a significantly positive correlation between the regional economic integration and the economic growth in East Asia. With 1 unit increase in the economic integration index, the economic growth rate rises by 0.1069%, which shows the action of active signing regional trade agreements among economies of East Asia has a positive effect on the economic growth. Furthermore, this study discovers the percentage of output of the service sector in GDP and communist countries also impacts the effect that the regional economic integration has on the economic growth. The positive correlation between the regional economic integration and the economic growth would be stronger when an economy with the condition of high percentage of output of the service sector in GDP and non-Communist countries. The author suggests the government should be more active to sign reciprocal regional trade agreements in order to boost the performance of the economic growth.