建立定量描述區域節氣之農民曆決策支援工具

Abstract

農民曆為農業活動重要的參考書，其曆法中節氣的編寫乃是依照天文黃道角度(15o)作為依據，因此每一年的節氣長度(15日)與日期幾乎是固定不變的。節氣名稱來自中國黃河流域的生活經驗，對於亞熱帶的台灣來說，有很多節氣的意義是不明顯了，如大雪、小雪等節氣。天氣系統由大尺度逐漸影響至小尺度的過程中，再加上各個區域的地形環境影響下，區域氣候中的節氣並不會固定是15日。 本研究中以區域測站之長期觀測資料進行變化點分析界定出觀測資料之變化點，再以變化點區隔之區間定義為變化點節氣。將一整年的資料區分為數個統計特性不同的群體並將這些群體的時間區間定義為區域節氣氣候分類。重新定義後的區域氣候節氣過T檢定與雪費事後檢定皆具顯著差異，表示此分類方式符合區域的氣候狀態。 農民曆為節氣與農業生產資訊結合，本研究使用農糧署稻米生產量報告書中的水稻插秧、收穫記錄以及台中農業試驗所之稻米試驗紀錄做為農業活動的資料，並與區域氣候節氣分類一同探討，綜合產製出特定區域特定作物之農民曆。雖然現階段的研究只參考了稻米紀錄，但未來可以套用至其他作物，產製出特定作物特定區域及特定農作所適用之農民曆 台灣擁有複雜的地形與多元的氣候區，缺乏彈性的工具是無法有效反應出氣候變遷的影響。本研究以定量的方式界定出區域節氣氣候分類所在日數之長短，相較於天文定義下的節氣版本更可以貼近氣候變遷下各個區域的實質感受。

The Farmer Almanac is an important reference book for agricultural activities. The 24 solar terms in the calendar is defined by astronomical which is about ecliptic 15 degrees. Thus, the length of one solar term is about 15 days and the date is almost constant. The name of the solar terms comes from the life experience of China. It isn’t fully applicable for the subtropical area like Taiwan. Some of the solar terms are not obvious, such as Heavy Snow and Light Snow. The weather system is gradually affected by multiple scale. In addition, the influence of the terrain environment of local areas are not the same, the solar terms in the regional climate should not be fixed for 15 days.In this study, the long-term observation data of local area is used to change point analyze. The data between two change point is defined as solar terms classification from local. All the solar terms classification are passed by T-test and scheffe's multiple comparison test.A useful Farmer Almanac should have two parts: crops information and climate risk knowledge. This study used the agricultural activity record by rice which are about planting date; flowering date harvest date. Finally, we can use those methods to produce a supporting tool to help our life.