歐盟就中國大陸對歐直接投資之策略分析

Abstract

中國大陸對外經濟成長快速，尤其顯現在對外直接投資的增加，企業投資佈局遍布世界，而歐盟更是位居已開發國家之冠，因此本文將以歐盟就中國大陸對歐直接投資之策略分析為主題。 目前海內外之研究文獻多聚焦於中國大陸作為新興經濟體之發展策略與投資動機，再者亦有中國大陸投資對歐盟之影響與歐盟之反制策略建議等。但在2008金融海嘯後，中國大陸對歐直接投資持續擴張，直至2017年歐盟發起對外直接投資審查與管制草案之決定間，尚有一段值得探索的篇章。 本文透過歷史制度主義視角，檢視歐盟機構內部是否在本主題中存在路徑依賴之慣性；亦兼顧歐盟之特殊制度設計，以三層次法分別藉由代表歐盟統合利益之歐盟執委會、國家利益之歐盟理事會與反映國內民意的歐洲議會等機構，嘗試探討機構之間的互動關係。 研究發現歐盟機構在2006年至2016年間就中歐直接投資的反應具有路徑依賴之特性，且依循制度未有明顯機關策略性合作或對抗；然而在2017年後則有脫離原有依賴路徑之傾向，歐盟理事會與歐洲議會合作推動歐盟執委會擬定相關政策。研究發現國家介入與意識型態高漲是催化並造成歐盟機構就中國大陸在歐直接投資政策上，路徑依賴改變之因素，歷史制度主義對於區域整合之解釋應加入國家與意識型態等重要變因。

In recent decades, the development of China’s foreign economy has grown rapidly, especially in the increase of its foreign direct investment (FDI) in numerous countries around the world. Among the many developed economies, European Union (EU) is ranked as the top recipient of Chinese outward FDI. With that in mind, the main objective of this research centers on EU’s strategic analysis on the political calculation of China’s FDI towards its member states. Most of the existing academic researches tend to focus on two aspects: first, the developmental strategy and investment motives of China as an emerging economy; Second, China’s influence over the EU through its outward FDI and recommendations for EU’s corresponding policy to counter China’s dominating economic power. However, there has been lack of studies on China’s continuous FDI in Europe between the 2008 financial tsunami and the 2018 Framework for Screening Foreign Direct Investments into the EU initiated by the European Union. To further understanding the economic relationship between China and the EU, this paper examines whether the theory of path dependence can be observed internally within EU institutions through the perspective of historical institutionalism. Furthermore, given the unique structure of the EU, the analysis adopts a three-level method in order to include the different representations of interest, namely the European Commission, Council of the European Union and European Parliament. As a result of this study, the nature of path dependence is observed in the responses of EU institutions towards EU-China bilateral foreign direct investment relations between 2006 and 2016; moreover, the system did not have obvious institutional cooperation or conflict. However, the institution has a tendency to drift away from the former path dependence nature by building the cooperation between the Council of the European Union and European Parliament in order to promote the implementation of relevant policies. The study also found that state involvement and the increasing ideology such as nationalism are the major factors that triggered EU’s change of behaviors on the nature of path dependency and strategies toward China’s FDI.