啤酒遊戲之決策行為分析

Abstract

在智慧化時代，各企業營運流程中已導入各種資訊和智慧化系統，來降低人為決策的偏誤，然而仍無法避免供需不平衡的狀況產生。長鞭效應描述終端顧客需求透過供應鏈的傳遞，最終變異增加，造成存貨或缺貨的產生，此效應由Forrester (1958) 年提出，而後諸多學者對此效應的原因和解方也有許多研究，但大部分的研究卻忽略人類行為的影響。Nienhaus et al. (2006) 和 Brauner et al. (2013) 連结人為決策行為和啤酒遊戲的結果，歸納出不同型的決策者，而本研究將延續以啤酒遊戲為基礎，探討不同資訊對於決策者的影響，了解決策者處於不同供應鏈層級時，是否會改變決策行為。本研究預先將決策者依照其實驗結果的存貨波動狀況分類，再利用面板數據進行迴歸模型分析，研究結果發現，越往上游的決策者越會利用各種資訊輔助其決策，然而決策者整體考量的重點因素卻不受限於供應鏈層級和存貨波動程度。

Nowadays, most of corporates have implemented technical or intelligence system, such as ERP, POS, in their daily operation to avoid human error and keep supply and demand balanced. However, we still cannot escape from it. Bullwhip effect describes increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in customer demand as one moves further up the supply chain. This phenomenon has been first described by Forrester in 1960s and replicated in a series of studies. There were also many solution, but most studies have neglected impacts of human behavior. Nienhaus et al. (2006) and Brauner et al. (2013) studied how human decision affect supply chain operation by wed-based beer game. Them researches have shown that human behavior does amplifies the bullwhip effect in supply chain. In this research, we continue analyzing what factors affect human decisions. Will it matter if they were at different level of supply chain? We first Class decision makers in to several Class by the degree of inventory fluctuation. Then use panel data analysis to conduct our research. In this research, we found that the more upstream a decision maker be, they would have considered more information before making decisions. Furthermore, no matter which level or which class a decision maker be, they were affected by the same factors.