候選人評價與投票行為：以2014年臺北市長選舉為例

Abstract

本研究主要檢視影響2014年台北市長選舉選民投票行為的因素，以及「柯文哲現象」是否符合全球「政治素人」興起之脈絡。本研究討論之主要解釋變項，其重要性在諸多投票行為研究中均已廣為驗證與接受，包括選民的社會背景、政治傾向、議題立場取向、對現任執政者之回溯性評價與對候選人的形象能力評價。 透過投票模型對比我們發現，候選人評價對於預測或解釋投票行為的效果最好，執政回溯評價的解釋力最低。另外，候選人評價、議題立場與政黨認同均為解釋柯文哲得票的主要因素，換句話說，投票給柯文哲的選民，主要是衡量柯文哲的形象能力、議題立場與其政治傾向，經綜合評估後方做出決定。在統計檢定上我們也有一些發現：多數選民對柯文哲的形象能力評價與議題立場認同感，高過連勝文；泛綠支持者大幅度傾向投票給柯文哲，泛藍陣營則是近2成「跑票」投給柯文哲；影響連勝文得票之主因為政黨認同，投連勝文者主要是一種偏向泛藍陣營的心理認同；女性比男性更傾向投給柯文哲；選民對馬英九的執政評價，並不直接影響其投票行為。 我們再進一步從總體層次上與個體層次上，檢視「柯文哲現象」是否符合全球「政治素人」興起之脈絡，總體層次上，我們發現這場選舉中確實存在「民主赤字」之特徵，不滿藍綠的選民超過4成，而這群選民傾向投給柯文哲；個體層次上，柯文哲之個人形象魅力，對選民投票行為具有直接影響力。我們可以說，在「政治素人」興起的全球化趨勢中，「柯文哲現象」亦足以做為一代表案例。

The study reviews the factors that affect the voters’ behaviors in 2014 Taipei City Mayor election and if the “Wen-je Ko phenomenon” fits in the rising contexts of the global political neophyte. The importance of main explanatory variables in the study has been verified and accepted in many studies of voting behaviors, including the voters’ social backgrounds, political tendency, issue stance and the retrospective evaluation of the ruling politicians and the image evaluation of the candidates. Through the voting models, we discover that the evaluation of the candidates shows the best outcome when predicting and explaining the voting behaviors while the retrospective evaluation of the ruling politicians reveals low explanation. Besides, the evaluation of the candidates, issue stance, and party identification are the major factors to explain Wen-je Ko’s vote-getting. In other words, the voters who vote for Wen-je Ko evaluates Ko’s image ability, issue stance, and political tendency. By the statistical verification, we also find that the identification for Ko’s image ability and issue stance is higher than that for Sean Lien. The pan-green supporters mostly tend to vote for Ko while the pan-blue supporters lost almost 20 percent votes. The main reason affecting Lien’s vote-getting is the party identification which indicates the psychological identification for the pan-blue party. The females’ votes for Ko are high than the males’ votes. The voters’ behaviors are not affected by the evaluation of Ying-jiu Ma’s performance. We again review the “Wen-je Ko phenomenon” to see if it fits in the rising contexts of the global political neophyte by the macro level and micro level. On the macro level, we find out that there are the characteristics of “democratic deficit” in the campaign, and more than 40 percent of voters tending to vote for Ko are not satisfied with both KMT and DDP; On the micro level, the personal image of Ko shows the direct influence on the voters’ behaviors. We can say that in the rising contexts of the global political neophyte, the “Wen-je Ko phenomenon” can be deemed as a representative case.