品牌化對芭樂產地價格之影響：以高雄為例

Abstract

本次研究以芭樂不同產地來源的產地價格為觀察基礎，利用時間序列分析及相關的指數平滑分析法、ETS、ARIMA等預測模型，將臺灣高雄市的芭樂生產價格，依照主要的產地產銷班，區分為四個生產區域，進行觀察、預測與分析。 研究結果顯示，不同的產地來源，價格上的差異是顯著的，以案例中的高雄市為例，燕巢區2006年至2015年的平均價格接近30元/公斤，高於其它三個主要生產區域的平均價格25元/公斤，而這樣的價格差異產生因素，存在於產品的生產管理不同，或是產品本身品質上的差別（共選共計制度），同時因為不同的市場行銷操作，間接地將生產產地，形塑成一個產地品牌（燕之巢），進而影響了產地的生產價格，造成區域之間的價格差異。 同時，從比較指數平滑模型、EST模型及ARIMA模型的模擬結果，並建立產地價格的預測模型，分析出不同區域的價格預測適用不同的模型，阿蓮區及燕巢區最適合的模型為Holt-Winters，大社區及美濃區最適合的模型為ETS。其後，再對產地價格進行預測，藉以協助生產者提高對產地價格的掌握，並同時讓後續的產品銷售及發展的採購者，能對不同的產地價格資訊有所掌握。

The research is observing the difference farm-gate price of guava. This study used the time series analysis and the methods of Exponential Smoothing (ES), Error Trend Seasonal (ETS), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), to analysis and forecast the farm-gate price of guava in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The farm-gate price data is divided into four production areas for observation, forecasting, and analysis. According to the results of the research, there are indeed price differences between different sources of production areas and such price differences may exist in different production and management of the product, or in the quality of the products themselves. There is a special operating system named “Common choice & Common pricing” in Yan-Chao farm-gate area as well. It is also a possibility of different marketing operations for branding as named “Yanzichao” which in turn affected the farm-gate price of different farms indirectly. At the same time, based on the time series data of previous years of farm-gate price, through the simulation of exponential smoothing simulation, EST simulation and ARIMA model, a prediction model of the farm-gate price was established, and what price forecasting model was most suitable has been compared in the research. Holt-Winters model is the most suitable method for farm-gate pricing prediction of A-Lian and Yan-Chao. On the other hand, the ETS model is quite suitable for Da-She and Mei-Non area to make the forecast of farm-gate price as well. Finally, the prediction of the farm-gate price of guava will be used to assist the farmer to increase their mastery of future farm-gate prices. At the same time, the purchase behavior of the latter stage will also be able to grasp the information of different farm-gate prices as well.