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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 雷立芬(Li Fen Lei) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Amgalanbaatar Bat-Erdene | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 貝爾安 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-17T03:16:13Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2018-07-19 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2018-07-19 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2018 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2018-07-04 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/69457 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | This research examines the impact of external debt on economic growth in Mongolia over the period 1992–2016. Recent external borrowing surge in Mongolia brought its traditionally low external debt to new height, making it one of the most indebted countries in the world. Theoretical and empirical literature suggests excessive amount of debt has detrimental effect on economic growth of a country.
Two separate models were employed in this study, one with simple OLS regression and another is four variable VECM involving GDP, Capital stock, Labor and Debt service. Using simple OLS, earlier study found positive significant relation between external debt stock and GDP, while result of this study with same model specification and newer data reveal positive but weaker relation, leading to the conclusion that the effect has been diminishing in recent years. In the multivariate model, Johansen cointegration test found one cointegrating rank among the four variables. Further, the result of VECM shows there is negative relation between GDP and Debt service in the long-run. Granger causality test provides support for uni-directional causality running from Debt service to GDP. Implication of this result is 10 percent increase in debt service cause 1% decrease in aggregate production. The results of this study are somewhat inconclusive in a sense that stock of external debt had positive but diminishing effect on growth, while debt service had negative effect. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that debt service variable is included in Model 2 as a proxy of overall debt burden of a country and highly correlated with stock of external debt. Thus, from the result of Model 2, one could argue overall effect of debt was negative in the long-run. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-17T03:16:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-107-R05627035-1.pdf: 5512773 bytes, checksum: e23007bd50968cd0e081cd8ec470ddba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
ABSTRACT iii LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Backgrounds and Motivation 1 1.2 Objectives of this Study 2 CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION 6 2.1 Economy of Mongolia 6 2.1.1 Composition of Industry Sectors 9 2.1.2 Mining Industry 11 2.1.3 International Trade 13 2.1.4 Finance 16 2.1.5 Development Strategy 19 2.2 Debt Profile of Mongolia 21 2.2.1 Government External Debt 21 2.2.2 Government Domestic Debt 25 2.2.3 Private External Debt 27 2.2.4 Debt Sustainability 28 2.2.5 Promises and Failures 32 2.2.6 Recession and Future 37 CHAPTER 3. LITERATURE REVIEW 40 3.1 Theoretical Background 40 3.2 Empirical Literature 43 3.3 Studies Related to Mongolia 46 CHAPTER 4. METHODOLOGY 49 4.1 Specification of Model 1 49 4.2 Specification of Model 2 50 4.3 Testing for Unit Root 52 4.4 Single Equation ECM 54 4.5 VECM and Cointegration Test 56 4.6 Granger Causality Test 57 CHAPTER 5. DATA AND RESULTS 59 5.1 Data Description and Limitations 59 5.1.1 Data Used in Model 1 59 5.1.2 Data Used in Model 2 61 5.1.3 Data Limitations 62 5.2 Result of Model 1 64 5.3 Result of Model 2 68 5.4 Summary and Comparison of Estimation Results 72 CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS 74 REFERENCES 78 APPENDIX A: DATASETS 83 APPENDIX B: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 85 APPENDIX C: REPLICATION OF OYUNTSATSRAL ET AL. (2015) 91 APPENDIX D: FULL OUTPUT OF VECM REGRESSION 94 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.subject | 外債 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 經濟成長 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 蒙古 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Economic Growth | en |
| dc.subject | External Debt | en |
| dc.subject | Cointegration | en |
| dc.subject | Mongolia | en |
| dc.title | 外債對經濟成長之影響: 蒙古案例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Effects of External Debt on Economic Growth: The Case of Mongolia | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 106-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 官俊榮(Jerome Geaun),林常青(Chang Ching Lin),鄭漢亮(Han Liang Cheng) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 外債,經濟成長,蒙古, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | External Debt,Economic Growth,Cointegration,Mongolia, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 96 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201801240 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2018-07-04 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 農業經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 農業經濟學系 | |
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