成人著色書如何形成風潮? - 以博客來網路書店資料進行實證分析

Abstract

在過去，著色書通常主要的消費族群是小孩。然而，在2015年卻悄悄興起一波前所未有的成人著色書風潮，從歐美蔓延至台灣，在全世界捲起一股熱潮。觀看資料發現，整個風潮持續的時間相當長，從2013年下半年開始持續至今。不過由於研究上的方便，本文取樣時間僅3年半，由2013年下半至2016年底。本文希望透過博客來網站上的排行榜資料，運用統計實證方法佐以樣本分析，觀察書籍的各種特性如何影響著色書的上榜能力；同時，透過樣本分析了解著色書風潮的演變，以及其市場結構狀況。最後經實證迴歸結果發現，針對市面上的成人著色書，書籍的「出版日期」、「出版社」及「贈品」對於上榜皆有顯著的影響，提早的出版日期、過去有經營藝術設計類的出版社及精美實用的贈品與書籍的高上榜次數具有顯著的影響關係；此外，透過樣本觀察，歸納並發現風潮的興起應是先有明星商品出現，之後帶起其它出版社的跟進。最後，本文將出版風潮分為4個時期，發現第3個時期競爭最激烈，市場結構類似獨占性競爭，出版社對於著色書主題有更多想像外，跟風者也多在此時加入。

In the past, the coloring books are mainly designed for children. However, there is a big wave of adult coloring books in 2015, spreading from Western world to Taiwan and even making trends all over the world. According to the data, we can find that duration of the trend is quite long, from second half year of 2013 to today. Due to the convenience of research, we limit the range of data to only 3 and a half years, from second half year of 2013 to the end of year 2016. This paper utilizes statistics regression method and analysis of samples in the market of adult coloring books on books.com.tw to understand how the characteristics of an adult coloring book influence its ability to be a bestseller；meanwhile, we observe the evolution of the trend of the adult coloring books and structure of the market through analysis of samples. Based on the regression models, “earlier publishing date”, “publishers” and “gifts” can significantly increase the percentage of an adult coloring books to become a bestseller. Moreover, through observation of the data, we infer that the wave of adult coloring books should be created by several leading star products, not because of large quantity of publishing simultaneously. Finally, we divide the trend into 4 parts and the third part is the most competitive. In the third part, the market structure is monopolistically competitive and the subjects of the adult coloring books increase largely；most followers enter into the markets at this time.