外國直接資對越南的經濟增長的影響

Abstract

This thesis focuses on finding a relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic growth in Vietnam. Unit root tests, Cointegration test and Toda and Yamamoto non-causality tests were employed in the empirical analysis. Annual time-series data covering the period 1987-2009 was used. With Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) Unit root tests, LNFDIR and LNGDPGR variables proved to be integrated of the order of one I(1). Johansen and Juselius Cointegration tests were used to determine the presence or otherwise of a cointegrating vector in the variables. Both Trace and Maximum Eingevalue indicated two cointegrations at 5% level of significance pointing to the fact that the variables have a long-run relationship. To determine the direction of causality among the variable, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) non-causality test was applied. Foreign Direct Investment was found to Granger Cause Economic growth but not vice versa.