氣候因子與交易量對批發市場甘藍菜交易價格影響之分析

Abstract

因農產品的栽種易受氣候影響，故產量的波動使得農產品價格隨之波動，因此瞭解氣候變化對產區產量的影響，則可掌握農產品價格的穩定性，故本研究針對臺灣11個果菜批發市場的交易量與當地氣候因子，檢視對甘藍菜交易價格的影響。透過2006年至2016年的週資料，本研究收集的果菜批發市場的交易量與交易價格，以及溫度、雨量、風速與溼度等相關氣候因子的數據，並以追蹤資料迴歸模型進行分析。 研究結果有以下之發現。首先，在臺北批發市場部分，因為是非產地的批發市場，故氣溫與溼度並不會影響交易價格，而其他產地型的批發市場顯示為正相關。其次，雨量因子會影響所有批發市場的交易價格，但是因氣候變遷使得旱災的頻率提升下，彰化與雲林批發市場的交易價格受到影響最明顯，且二者間為負相關。最後，風速因子只會對有颱風登入地區的甘藍菜價格產生影響。

Because climate changes have significant influence on cultivation of agricultural products, it results that fluctuation of production has the impact on prices as well. Therefore, understanding the effects of climate changes on agricultural production in production areas can manage the price stability. As a result, the objective of the study is to investigate the impact of trading volume and local climatic factors on the kale trading prices from 11 fruit and vegetable wholesale markets. The data collected is based on weekly trading volume, trading prices, temperature, rainfall, wind-speed and humidity during the period of 2006-2016 with the methodology of the panel data regression model. The findings are as follows. First, due to the fact that there is no local production sources in the Taipei wholesale market, trading prices are not affected by the climatic factors of temperature and humidity. Nevertheless, the two factors mentioned above are correlated positively with trading prices for the rest of 10 wholesale markets. Second, rainfall influences trading prices among all markets. However, because of increased frequencies in lack of rainfall, the trading price are influenced by it negatively and significantly in both Changhua and Yunlin wholesale markets. Finally, the factor of wind-speed has the effect on kale price only under the situation when typhoon occurs in the local production area.