溫度對於大學入學考試分數的影響

Abstract

2000到2010年的七月，每年有將近十萬名台灣高中生在沒有冷氣的三十度高溫環境下，參加大學升學考試。本篇論文使用臺灣全國2000~2010七月大學考試分數資料，控制住其他天氣變數、年的固定效果和高中的固定效果，使用OLS模型分析溫度對於考生表現的影響。本篇論文發現:當溫度上升一度，考生的國文、英文、歷史、地理、數乙等文科成績會顯著下降。另一方面，溫度對於自然科成績的影響則不顯著。結果隱含大學入學考試分數反映的除了學生的個人能力，還有當天溫度對於學生表現的影響。因此，在冷氣禁令實行下的大學聯考及大學指考，無法有效率的評估學生的真實能力。除此之外，結果也顯示工作效率和溫度有顯著的負向關係。

During 2000 and 2010, air conditioning was not allowed during the entrance exam sessions even when average temperature reached 30°C in Taiwan. This thesis explores the temperature effects on students’ performances by using universal Taiwanese test scores data of college/university entrance exams and hourly weather condition data at county level. OLS models are constructed controlling for weather conditions other than temperature, high school fixed effects and year fixed effects, in the hope that the change in students’ test scores brought by temperature can be more accurately estimated. As the temperature rises by 1°C, significant drops are found in test scores of art/social science subjects, which are Chinese, English, History, Math B and Geography. However, the temperature effects on scientific subjects are not significant. The result implies that the ban of air conditioning during test sessions makes the entrance exam an inefficient tool in measuring students’ true abilities. In addition, the result suggests that the loss in working productivity brought by 1°C in temperature is significant.