MLB總冠軍系列賽主場劣勢實證研究

Abstract

本文在驅動理論(Drive Theory)及自我定向理論(Self-Focus Theory)假設之下，以美國大聯盟1925 年起之總冠軍系列賽資料，實證進行負向觀眾聲援效果的存在性，並以此佐證運動心理學上對於主場關鍵時刻劣勢(Home Choke)的爭論與結果。 由總冠軍系列賽長度分配的差距出發，著重討論第六戰中趨使落後球隊追平的緣由，透過迴歸模型，為負向觀眾效果這項已由實驗證明，但在運動心理學實證上始終爭論不休的議題，提出有力的看法。 有別於大多數使用 Logit 模型處理比賽勝負的作法，使用得失分差代替單純的勝負結果，利用季賽勝率、投手自責分率、總冠軍經驗、場次壓力虛擬變數、場次觀眾影響虛擬變數…等，來預估比賽的勝負分差；另以比賽球隊距離，控制觀眾影響的存在。 結果顯示在第六戰的特定壓力下，領先主場球隊會因為觀眾聲援而產生表現下降的現象，但落後主場球隊亦因觀眾聲援伴隨表現上升的現象，兩相抵消之下，解釋了僅從主客場比賽勝率較難以辨明主場關鍵時刻劣勢的存在。

This research was under the assumptions of “Drive Theory” and “Self-focus Theory”, conducting an empirical research on home team disadvantage due to the existence of supportive audience. Using the data based on 1925-2016 MLB world-series with OLS regression instead of logic model, to predict each game’s lose points. To focus on the audience effect, the below factors were set as control variables including wining-percentage in regular season, starting pitcher’s ERA in regular season, team experience for world-series, and dummy variable of pressure differences among games. Furthermore, define the existence of audience effect by distance between two teams. This research proved the assumption of home team disadvantage due to the pressure from supportive audience in the 6th game in MLB’s world-series. A leading home team with just one more games to win suffered worse performance due to pressure from supportive audience.