新農保政策對中國農村老年人勞動供給與隔代撫育的影響

Abstract

隨著中國社會老齡化進程的加速以及城鄉之間的長期不平衡發展，中國農村老年人面臨的養老問題日益嚴峻。一方面，由於農村社會養老保障體系的缺失，且農村老年人口沒有法定的退休制度，農村老年人不僅面臨持續勞動以維持生計的壓力；另一方面，隨著城市化進程的加快，越來越多農村青壯年選擇外出打工，而外出務工的夫妻常常將子女留在老家交由祖父母代為照顧，加重了作為祖父母的農村老年人的時間負擔。為了解決農村老人的一系列養老問題，自從2009年開始，中國政府實施新型農村社會養老保險（簡稱新農保），而該政策是否在較大程度上改善了農村老人的生活處境則仍然有待評估。本文首先提出了一個有關老年人時間分配的理論模型，并利用中國健康與養老追蹤調查（CHARLS）2013年的全國資料，藉助Bivariate Tobit迴歸模型，從時間分配角度分析了新農保政策對中國農村中老年人勞動供給和隔代撫育的影響，並分別從父母和子女兩個層面出發，探討了新農保影響老人照顧孫子女時間的方式。 對父母層面資料的實證結果顯示：有資格領取新農保的60歲以上的老人，新農保顯著減少了他們的勞動時間的同時，顯著增加了他們照顧孫子女的時間；關於60歲以下老人，新農保對他們的勞動時間有顯著的正向影響，而對其照顧時間則沒有顯著影響。這是因為參加新農保的老人需要交保費至60歲，之後才能領取養老金，因而他們在領取養老金前後會呈現不同的勞動或照顧行為。相比女性，新農保顯著增加了男性老人的照顧時間。 對子女層面資料的實證結果顯示：新農保對老人每一個子女的小孩的照顧時間有正向影響，但不顯著，說明新農保不會平均提高老人對每一個子女的小孩的照顧時間。老年人子女的特徵，如性別、年齡、是否與父母同住等因素，對老年人照顧孫子女的時間有顯著影響，老年人更傾向於照顧自己兒子的小孩（孫子女）而非女兒的小孩（外孫子女）。

With the acceleration of the aging process in China and the long-term unbalanced development between urban and rural areas, the problem of old-age pension in rural China is becoming much more serious. On the one hand, due to the lack of a rural social security system, and a rural elderly population without a statutory retirement system, these elderly people are faced with sustained labor to maintain the pressure on their livelihood. On the other hand, with the acceleration of the urbanization process, many more rural young adults have chosen to work, and the migrant workers often leave their children with their grandparents, thereby placing a time burden on them. In order to solve a series of old-age pension problems in rural areas, since 2009, the Chinese government implemented a New Rural Social Pension Insurance（NRSP）, and whether this policy has improved the living conditions of the rural elderly, to a large extent, still needs to be assessed. This paper uses China's National Health and Retirement Tracking Survey (CHARLS) in 2013, and the Bivariate Tobit regression model, to analyze the impact of the NRSP on the labor supply of elderly people in China’s rural areas, and skip-generation raising. We also look at this situation from the parent’s and children’s viewpoint, by exploring how the NRSP impacts on the time of the elderly to take care of their grandchildren. The empirical results of parental data shows: For those aged over 60, and who are eligible for the NRSP, as it has significantly reduced their working hours, and has considerably increased their time to take care of their grandchildren. For the elderly aged under 60, the NRSP has had a significantly positive impact on their working hours, while their care time has had no significant impact. This is because the elderly, who are participating in this insurance scheme, are required to pay the premium up to the age of 60, so that they will present different labor or care before and after they receive their pensions. Compared to women, the NRSP significantly increased the care time of men. The empirical results of the children’s data demonstrated that the NRSP increased the care time of every parent’s children (the grandchildren of the elderly) provided by the elderly, but this result is not significant. In addition, the characteristics of the grandchildren, such as gender, age, and whether they live together with their parents, has made a significant impact on the time of the elderly to take care of their grandchildren, therefore, the elderly are more likely to take care of their son's children rather than their daughter’s children.