第九屆立法委員選舉民進黨艱困選區提名策略之研究

Abstract

台灣在2016年完成第三次政黨輪替，民進黨也首度取得完全執政，但該次大選牽涉總統、立委選舉，及靠政黨票擴大不分區立委席次，所以選戰佈局，對大黨攸關能否執政，對小黨則是生存保衛戰，因此提名及結盟策略，尤為關鍵。 如果以小觀大，從民進黨艱困選區的提名策略，或許不難看出，在聯合非國民黨勢力的競選前提下，對於跨藍綠光譜結合的難易度、選舉結果的差異及背後效應，皆會產生環環相扣的連鎖效應。 本文從民進黨和親民黨、及時代力量結盟之形成、結盟之過程與比較、結盟結果及效應等3個面向進行觀察，研究結論如下：一、民進黨艱困選區立委提名受總統選情及派系牽動。二、政治光譜影響民進黨與其他政黨結盟及整合難易。三、結盟政黨是否有總統候選人影響立委輔選節奏。四、政黨光譜及過往政治認同影響選民投票意向。五、民進黨基層組織基於己身利益難順黨意輔選。六、黨籍市長成他黨競選總部主委政治資源較易移轉。七、民進黨內部及對外發布民調不同調。

In 2016, Taiwan finished the third Party Alternation, and the Democratic Progressive Party won full political power for the first time. But the election involves the elections of the president and Legislative Council, and the party vote expanded and did not partition the Legislative Council seats. The layout of the election plays a crucial role for big parties to be in power and for minor parties to survive. Therefore, the nomination and alignment strategy is of great importance. From the nomination strategy of the Democratic Progressive Party in difficult constituency, we can see that, in the premise of campaign combined with non-Kuomintang forces, the degree of the difficulties in combining the blue-green spectrums, the difference in the results of election and the back effect will have a ripple effect of interlocking. This article is based on the observation and analysis of the 3 aspects of the formation of the DPP, PFD and the alliance of the forces of the time, the comparison of the alliance process and the results and the effects of the alliance. I got conclusions as follows: first, the nomination of Legislative Council of the DPP in difficult constituency is influenced by the election of the president and other factions. Second, the political spectrum affects the DPP's alliance with other political parties and their integration. Third, that whether the coalition party has presidential candidates affects the legislative assistant election. Forth, the party spectrum and past political identity influence voter’s voting intentions. Fifth, the grass-roots organizations of the DPP may not follow the party's directions for their own interests. Sixth, the political resources are easily transferred when a party mayor become a member of another party to compaign headquarters Chairman. Seventh, the DPP internal and external polls released are in different tunes.