臺灣電動車產業結構與發展策略之情境分析

Abstract

自從工業革命以來，環境遭受險峻的挑戰與過度汙染。近年來環保意識逐漸受到重視，各國紛紛制定環保計畫，希望從產業層面開始做起；1970年代的石油危機，更喚起了人們對於綠能車輛的重視。2016年特斯拉正式進入臺灣市場，然而臺灣電動車廠商在面臨產業尚不成熟之狀況之下，尚未有企業提出明確策略規劃。因此，本研究擬探討未來三至五年間，臺灣電動車產業結構變化的驅力、產業發展情境，最後提出合理情境下臺灣業者可採行之商業模式與策略建議。 本研究利用Michael Porter所提出之五力分析與情境分析為主要理論架構，同時透過價值網分析和史丹福國際研究的情境分析法，分析電動車產業結構並歸納其產業關鍵要素，然後建立影響產業未來發展的不確定因素，並依其對產業的衝擊性與不確定性分門別類，從而歸納出影響產業發展的不確定構面，並據以推導出產業發展的若干可能情境；最後，本研究依據不同可能情境，提供企業發展策略之參考建議。 本研究發現電動車產業的關鍵因素在於電池技術的發展，因其直接關乎電動車性能及成本，據此分析出電池技術的變化、廠商投入的積極性，以及互補品建置等三個軸面，並據以建立未來可能的多種發展情境。透過情境分析，本研究發現最適合企業發展之情境為「活絡競爭」。對此，本研究認為臺灣電動車業者應保持彈性，電動車廠商可優先布局充電網絡，未來透過充電網絡獲利，產品研發則可優先著重在電動大客車之研發，以滲透電動車市場，最後則是與業內及早擬定統一供電規格，擴大電動車市場規模。

Since Industrial Revolution in 1820s, the environment on the Earth has been seriously polluted. Moreover, environmental awareness has become one of the top issues of global concern. Many countries have initiated various measures for environmental protection and urged industries to follow. Since the oil crisis occurred in the 1970s, people started to pay attention on the development of green vehicles. In 2016, Tesla formally entered Taiwan market, however, the local companies have not yet ready for the competition due to the immaturity of the industry environment. To explore the future possibility under uncertainty, this thesis undertakes a scenario analysis to portray the development of dynamic electric vehicle industry, upon which future strategies for the intended companies would be based This thesis first analyzes the structure of electric vehicle industry based on Five-Force Model, Value Net and Scenario Analysis Methods, among others. With these analyses, we found that battery technology would be the most critical factor that defines the uncertainty of the industry development. We therefore draw three scenario variables that will affect the development and diffusion of electric vehicles; they are the progress of battery technology, the investment levels of product development, and the development of complementary products. Based on these three variables, we then identify several reasonable scenarios for further discussion. After evaluation, we concluded that the best scenario for prospective electric vehicle players would be the scenario of Active Competition. Based on this specific scenario, we suggest potential contenders stay elastic in EV industry also invest in charge stations as priority, also invest in research and development in electric bus. Furthermore, companies shall ensure a unified specification on battery so that the scale economies can be jointly achieved.