中國的多樣差序政府信任：一項基於第三波亞洲民主動態調查的分析

Abstract

中國大陸有別於一般民主國家，民眾對中央政府的信任普遍高於地方政府，這種信任模式被稱為「差序政府信任」（hierarchical trust）。然而，差序政府信任所代表的實質意涵仍有待進一步探究。民眾對中央政府表達高度信任的現象，無疑是對中共統治正當性的最好支撐，但是當民眾同時對地方政府表達相對較低的信任時，就未必再對中共的統治正當性有同樣的助益。近期的文獻發現，持有差序政府信任的民眾，其實對政體的滿意度是較低的。 為了釐清差序政府信任的真實意涵，本文認為有必要將差序政府信任進一步分類。本文依據民眾對中央和地方政府的信任與否，將差序政府信任分類成三種類型，分別為「均信任的差序信任」、「只信任中央的差序信任」和「均不信任的差序信任」，其中，前兩種是主要的差序信任類型，也將會是本文議論的重點。既有文獻大多將這三種類型歸為一種進行研究，而本文將其分為三種是因為，當民眾對地方政府的政治態度由信任轉向不信任時，很可能就是民眾對整個體制表達懷疑乃至不滿的開始，因此，若缺乏這個分類，將會錯估不同類型民眾的政治態度。 本文使用亞洲民主動態調查（Asian Barometer Survey）中國大陸第三波的調查資料，並主要從「對政府表現的評價」和「政治價值觀」兩項影響政治信任的因素來探究不同類型的差序政府信任。統計分析結果顯示，造成「均信任的差序信任」的主因是民眾對中央和地方兩種政府表現評價的差異，「只信任中央的差序信任」則是由各面向的政治價值觀所塑造而成。此外，本文也證明了兩種主要差序信任類型的最主要差異在於「只信任中央的差序信任」明確地表達了對政體的不滿。

The literature has long recognized that unlike in democracies, many Chinese people are more trustful in their central government than in local governments. This phenomenon is largely defined as “hierarchical trust”. However, what it really stands for requires further investigations. When citizens of China show high levels of trust in central government, it is without a doubt the best support for the legitimacy of CCP’s rule. But when citizens have lower trust in local governments simultaneously, the support for CCP’s legitimacy might decrease. Recent studies have shown that citizens who have hierarchical trust actually have a lower degree of satisfaction of the regime. To clarify the concept of hierarchical trust, this thesis believes that it is needed to further categorize hierarchical trust into different types. I argue that among those who have hierarchical trust, some only trust the central government, while other trust both the central and the local governments, although the level of trust of the local governments is lower. Accordingly, the first type of hierarchical trust is “trust in both the central and the local governments”, the second type is “only trust in the central government”, and the third type is “distrust in both the local and the central governments”. This thesis focuses on the first two types as my empirical data shows that they are the major types of Chinese people’s hierarchical trust. While existing studies usually conflate these three types as one, this thesis finds that the division is necessary because when people start to distrust the local governments, they might also start to doubt the whole regime. If no distinction is made, we will easily misestimate the political attitude of different types of people. This thesis uses the third wave of Asian Barometer Survey to illustrate the different types of hierarchical trust. In my model, “evaluation about government performance” and “political value” are the main independent variables. The regression analysis shows that the “trust in both central and local governments” mainly results from people’s different evaluations of the central and the local governments. In addition, people who “only trust in the central government and not in the local governments” usually have different political values. Besides of that, this thesis also demonstrates that the major difference between the first two types of hierarchical trust lies in the fact that the first type of hierarchical trust, namely “only trust in the central government” has an explicit dissatisfaction toward the regime, and the other type of hierarchical trust does not.