創新與經濟成長

Abstract

本文利用2012-2017年間108個國家的平衡追蹤資料，探討創新投入及創新產出與經濟成長的關係。先前的研究通常以研發支出當作創新投入的指標，以專利產出當作創新產出的指標。然而採用研發支出當創新的投入及採專利產出作為創新產出指標皆會有侷限性，於創新投入，僅參考研發支出將會忽略國家創新基礎建設、知識勞工訓練等影響創新的投入；而若僅以專利產出評斷創新產出，則會面對非所有創新都能申請專利，及並非所有創新都會去申請專利的問題。本文藉由選擇目前衡量各國創新程度最全面的全球創新指數報告(GII report)做為衡量新的指標，利用報告中的創新投入及創新產出的指數當作各國創新投入及產出的變數，探討創新投入、產出與人均GDP成長率的關係。本文將108個國家分為全樣本、高所得國家樣本、中所得國家樣本及低所得國家樣本分別進行迴歸，發現僅在高所得樣本中創新投入與人均GDP成長率呈顯著負相關，意味短期而言高所得國家的創新投入會減緩國家的經濟成長。僅在高所得樣本中創新產出與人均GDP成長率顯著正相關，顯示僅有高所得國家的創新產出對其國家的經濟成長有貢獻，隱含著僅有高質量的創新產出才能對經濟帶來成長。本文接著以創新產出/創新投入當作創新效率變數與人均GDP成長率進行迴歸，發現僅在高所得樣本中創新效率與人均GDP成長率正相關，表僅有在高所得國家樣本中，創新的效率提高會提高國家的經濟成長率，也間接證實高所得國家的創新產出品質較高的論點。本文實證結果顯示雖然高所得國家的創新投入短時間會對國家的經濟成長率有負面的影響，然而卻能夠藉由高質量的創新產出對經濟有長期正向影響，因此應持續投入創新發展並積極進行創新產出。對於中所得及低所得的國家而言，應該做的是先盡全力模仿、學習高所得國家的創新技術，等到國內的創新技術水平追趕上高所得國家的水平，再進行創新的產出，如此才能藉由高質量的創新產出來有效的提升國家的經濟成長。

This paper investigates the relationships between innovation and economic growth, specifically, the relation between innovation input and economic growth, and between innovation output and economic growth using a panel data of 108 countries between 2012 and 2017. Most of the previous studies use R&D expense as innovation input, and patent grants as innovation output, however, both methods have their limitations. For innovation input, R&D expense is only one of the innovation inputs, others include education expense, infrastructure expense, etc. For innovation output, not all innovation output can apply for a patent, and not all patentable innovations are applied for patent grants. Hence, this paper uses the innovation input and innovation output index in the Global Innovation Report, the most comprehensive innovation report, as proxies for innovation input and innovation output. The samples in this paper are grouped into high-income, middle-income, and low-income subsamples and we regress GDP per capita growth on innovation input and output respectively. The regression result shows that only in high-income sample the innovation input has a negative effect on economic growth, indicating that innovation input is expansive for high-income countries and will hamper their economic growth in the short term. The result also shows that only in high-income samples the innovation output has a positive effect on economic growth, indicating that only high-income countries can produce quality innovation outputs that can bring positive contributions to economic growth. The paper further use the value of innovation output divided by innovation input as a proxy for innovation efficiency, the regression result shows that only in high-income samples the innovation efficiency has positive effect on economic growth, indicating that the assumption of only high-income countries can produce quality innovation outputs is solid. That is to say, high-income countries should keep investing in innovation input and producing high quality innovation outputs, and middle-income and low-income countries should dedicate themselves to imitate and learn the innovation outputs from high-income countries and gradually improve their innovation capability. Middle-income and low-income countries should not force themselves into producing innovative products before catching up the innovative levels of high-income countries and having the abilities to produce quality innovation outputs that can propel economic growth.