中共海軍戰略發展之演進（1949-2011）－兼以馬漢海權理論探討

Abstract

人類海洋觀念的演進是從最初的靠海維生與近岸航行，發展到視海洋為重要的交通航路，再轉變成以海洋為人類生存與發展的重要空間，因此，海洋這一個資源豐富的寶庫，遂成為各種力量相互競爭的舞台。美國海軍上校馬漢（Alfred Thayer Mahan 1840-1914）於1890年發表《1660年至1783年海權對歷史的影響》（The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660-1783），內容論及海權對人類歷史發展居於重要地位，此本經典著作影響並奠定爾後的海軍戰略思想。馬漢的海權理論包含「海洋控制」與「海洋利用」兩部分，前者為海權發展之軍事因素，後者為海權發展之經濟因素。 近十年來，中共海軍力量的發展一如其經濟成長情況一般快速起飛，很自然地成為西方矚目的焦點，特別是其建立遠洋艦隊的企圖，更引起外界高度關注。中共在2004年國防白皮書明示海軍的責任為：「防衛中共海事安全暨維護其領土海域的主權及海事權力和利益。」並且強調執行近海作戰的重要性、即時備戰能力、加強整合作戰能量以及執行核子反擊能力。依中共海軍自己規劃，希望2050年具備並達到遂行遠洋作戰的能力和目標。 中共在海軍戰略上由消極轉向積極，對台灣及亞太地區海域安全具有重大的影響，而臺灣位處西太平洋第一島鏈中樞，扼制中共東出西太平洋的門戶，中共未來海軍戰略的發展將對台海安全環境產生巨大的影響，再加上亞太地區的國際環境複雜，美國、日本、中共彼此間的利益爭奪；多邊關係的發展與多層防禦縱深的戰略部署，均對台海安全環境產生巨大影響。因此，若能及早洞悉中共海軍戰略發展全貌，將有助於鞏固我國海權，維護海運交通，確保我國未來生存發展之安全。 本論文研究之目的為從政治、經濟與軍事等面向予以檢視，審慎探討分析中共自（1949-2011）各時期海軍戰略轉變因素及發展趨勢，並進行客觀之評估，以及對我國家安全所造成的影響。本論文研究發現，從中共發展海軍戰略之意涵及趨勢評估，說明了中共為追求國家利益及崛起的地位，已逐漸由區域性海軍向全球性遠洋海軍發展與布局，進而發展成為一個具全球影響力的大國。

The evolution of human maritime concepts is from the initial living by sea and near shore sailing to the subsequent viewing oceans as important transportation course, then as important spaces for human’s existence and development. Oceans as treasure boxes become the stage for all competing powers. U.S. Navy flag officer Alfred Thayer Mahan published The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660-1783 in 1890. Its content refers to the sea power as an important part in the development of human history. This classic publication has influenced and given birth to the later navy strategies. Mahan’s sea power theory contains “Control of the Sea” and “Uses of the Sea,” the former is the military factors of the sea power. the latter is the economic factors of the sea power. In the past decade, the development of PRC’s navy power has grown as fast as its economical growth. Naturally, such rapid growth attracts the attention of western countries. PRC’s attempt to build a far sea fleet is especially highly concerned by international community. In its 2004 national defense White Paper, PRC stated that the navy’s duty is to “defend and secure its ocean territory and authority, and its rights and profits.” It emphasized the importance of coastal operations, the abilities to prepare timely for combat, enhancing integrated combat abilities to exercise nuclear strike back. According to PRC’s own plan, it hopes to achieve the previous goals in 2050. PRC’s navy strategy has switched from the passive to aggressive and has gravely impacted to Taiwan and Asia-Pacific region. Since Taiwan is in the center of the Asia-Pacific rim, and controls PRC’s way into Pacific Ocean, the future development of PRC’s navy strategy would cause a great influence on Taiwan’s security. Moreover, the international environment of Asia-Pacific region is becoming more complicated since America, Japan and China have interests conflict in this region. The development of multilateral relations and the in-depth multilevel military deployment have great impact on the security of Taiwan Strait. Thus, if we can understand the whole picture of PRC’s navy strategy as early as possible, it would help us securing our sea rights, protecting our ocean traffics, and ensuring our future development and safety. The study is aimed at, from the facets of politics, economics and military, examining and analyzing the changing factors and developing trends of PLAN strategies in different periods form (1949-2011). Besides, to reach an objective assessment and to explore what impacts will be on ROC’s national security is also another purpose. The implications of PLAN’s strategies and trends assessed show that to pursue its national interests and emerging status, China is prompting PLAN to steadily transform from a local navy to a global blue water navy, with a stronger ambition to emerge as a great power with global influence.