澳洲對中美在南太平洋權力競逐之回應

Abstract

回顧過往探討中美在區域競逐的文獻可以發現：當中國開始在那些具有重要戰略、經濟與政治利益的區域佔有一席之地時，身為全球霸權的美國必然因為競逐權力的邏輯重回區域，與中國爭奪有限的經濟資源或是關鍵的戰略位置，並竭力避免中國成為領導區域的力量；我們分別在東南亞、拉丁美洲以及非洲都看到了這樣的現象。 面對中美在區域的權力競逐，東南亞、拉丁美洲以及非洲的區域強權也都有所回應；舉例而言，東南亞與拉丁美洲國家多選擇「避險」的策略，在尋求美國安全方面保障的同時，另一方面則鞏固與中國雙邊的經貿利益；非洲區域強權則有不同的選擇，如南非面對中美競逐就較支持美國、而奈及利亞則是傾中集團的忠實成員。回顧文獻發現區域歷史權力結構、地緣遠近、中美兩國在區域的實力差距、與中國或美國的雙邊關係等因素都會影響區域國家採用何種策略。 然而，南太平洋區域卻未曾有學者以系統性的方式探討中美在此區的競爭作為，自然也缺乏探討區域強權回應中美競逐的相關研究，成為研究中美全球競逐的文獻缺口；因此，本文將有系統整理中美在南太平洋的權力競逐情況，除了補強中美在全球各區域的權力競逐版圖之外，還希望回答此區強權—澳洲面對中美競逐時，究竟採取何種策略。 第二章主要探討中國與南太平洋之間的關係。中國主要基於下列三大理由積極經營南太平洋，自然資源、與台灣爭奪邦交國以及與西方爭奪影響力。就手段來看，在政治方面中國相當擅於使用「互訪外交」、「論壇外交」等方式拓展影響力；軍事上則積極與南太平洋國家簽定雙邊軍事協定；經濟上則以免除關稅、投資開發自然資源以及開發商港、工業區等方式加深南太平洋國家對中國的依賴程度；在援助方面則以協助南太平洋國家興建基礎建設為主。最後，就效果來看，中國在南太平洋的影響力呈現相當穩定的成長，尤其在政治以及援助領域已是不可或缺的外來強權，而經濟則是成長幅度最快的領域，未來潛力不可小覷；至於軍事領域則尚缺乏突破的契機，頂多與南太平洋國家進行軍事交流，但無法與美澳在此區的軍事實力相互匹敵。 第三章則描述美國與南太平洋的關係，具體而言回答美國如何回應中國在南太平洋的積極經營。首先以冷戰時期南太平洋的戰略用途勾勒此區對美國的重要性，再探討美國退出區域的背景，後續則觀察美國在2007年後一連串重返區域的密集作為，發現較容易在政治與軍事領域觀察到美國的競爭作為，舉例而言，美國在多邊組織當中轉趨積極；除此之外，也大動作興建斐濟以及帛琉的大使館，預備擴大在南太平洋的外交業務；軍事方面則加強雙邊軍事關係以及強化軍事部署，也定期與日本、澳洲針對區域安全進行軍事演練。而經濟與援助之作為則仍集中在「自由聯合協定」國家上，其他南太平洋國家並未感受到美國重返區域的力道。 第四章則主要回答澳洲如何回應中美區域競逐的問題。針對中國崛起的部分，唯有政治領域可以觀察到澳洲直接的反制作為：例如要求北京取消訪問斐濟的行程；至於澳洲間接與中國競爭的作為則可以在政治、軍事以及援助領域中觀察到，主要包括與多個南太平洋國家改善關係、與美日聯合進行軍演並加強與南太平洋國家的戰略合作關係、並且在援助態度以及項目上進行調整等等。在以上領域中，都可以清楚見到澳洲希望維持區域穩定以及維護區域霸權的意圖。 綜合來看，本研究認為中美在南太平洋的權力競逐主要集中在政治與軍事領域，且美國作為多「虛大於實」，可以說中美在區域的競爭尚未達到白熱化階段；反而較可以觀察到中澳之間在區域存在深刻且難以化解的利益矛盾，本文認為兩國在區域的齟齬雖不致影響到現階段的中澳關係，但不排除是未來觀察中澳關係的重要指標。

When it comes to the power scramble between China and the U.S., the literature shows that the U.S. always comes back to those regions where China has expanded into. For example, we can see fierce competitions between the U.S. and China at Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa. In the face of power scramble at their own land, regional powers all take certain strategies in order to respond toward China or the U.S. Take Singapore and Indonesia for instances, they prefer“hedging”between the U.S. and China. While African powers like South Africa and Nigeria have taken totally different stands; South Africa is on the side of the U.S., while Nigeria is very loyal toward China. The study concludes that the strategy which regional countries take is determined by several factors, including historical power structure at the region, geography, whether China is strong enough to compete with America, and bilateral relationship between regional states and China/U.S. However, no literature has examined the power scramble at the South Pacific region; neither do we know how the regional power responds to China or the U.S. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the South Pacific region and examines all details of competition between China and America. Moreover, the thesis will analyze how the regional power—Australia responds to China and the U.S. Chapter two is about the relationship between China and South Pacific countries. China engages with the region because of three reasons: fighting for natural resources, uniting Taiwan and deteriorating western influence. In terms of methods, China is good at employing “visit diplomacy” and “forum diplomacy” to enhance relationship with ocenia islands. In addition, China also takes a lot of efforts to sign bilateral military treaties with south pacific countries. In terms of economic strategies, China often invests in natural resources exploration and helps them to explore industrial zones and business harbors. Building infrastructure is also a very common aid strategy of China in the region. In one word, China is a great power in terms of politics and economic aid. And it is a potential great economic power at the South Pacific region. Military is the weakest field where China still can not compete with the U.S. and Australia. Chapter three is about the relationship between the U.S. and the South pacific countries. First of all, I describe the strategic importance of the region for the U.S. during the Cold War. Then I examine why and how the U.S. faded out from the region. Nevertheless, the U.S. came back in 2007 and started to have competition with China in the fields of politics and military. For example, the U.S retook ownership of regional organizations, and built embassies at Palau and Fiji. Furthermore, the U.S. has been eager to enhance the deployment at Guam base and held several military drills with Australia and Japan. The U.S. influence in terms of economic power and aid strategy is restricted to “Free Associated countries.” Chapter four is about how Australia responds to Sino-American scramble at the region. The study shows that Australia took countermeasures in order to contain China politically. In 2009, Australia asked Beijing to call off its visit to Fiji. Other than that, most reponses from Australia are indirectly aimed to contain or balance China. For example, Australia started to patch its relationship with several countries like Solomon Islands and Samoa. Also, Australia held military drills with the U.S. and Japan. While in the field of economic aid, Australia made several policy shifts on aid strategy toward the South pacifc countries. With all these reponses, we can see Australia’s desire to ensure its hegemonic status at the region. Compared to other regions, power scramble between the U.S. and China is less fierce at the South Pacific. However, the thesis shows that China and Australia have several disputes at the region, which might influence their bilateral relations in the future.