311日本大地震對台灣電子業之影響與PCB之未來發展趨勢

Abstract

本論文針對日本311大地震對高科技產業的影響，探討其對PCB產業的影響與全球發展現況，最後由未來新興終端電子產品來看PCB未來發展趨勢。PCB為電子產品不可或缺的關鍵零組件，有『電子系統產品之母』之稱，且在台灣電子零組件產業中，PCB產業的產值比重最高。日本為全球印刷電路板產業領導國家，更是高階PCB材料的主要生產國。 此次日本大地震對台灣高科技產業的影響，以半導體產業影響最廣，而在電子關鍵材料部分，則對PCB及半導體產業影響較大。所幸日本PCB廠可利用海外投資的工廠以調度方式暫時滿足短缺需求，且目前台商軟板技術已拉近與日本的距離，海外佈局也相對靈活，因此日本地震成為台灣廠商進入國際大廠供應鏈的最佳時機，但是軟板業面臨韓國的威脅，因此台灣廠商應積極將產品技術提升，並積極取得認證。上游原物料部分，台灣廠商開發高階銅箔已久，此次地震客戶開始願意嘗試台灣產品，超薄銅箔與相關高階產品出現轉單跡象；CCL中以載板用BT樹脂影響最大，日本大地震讓IC基板廠商體認到增加上游供應商與分散風險的重要性，短期轉單效應已逐漸形成長期供應關係，其中台灣廠商南亞已開始進入國際大廠認證階段，同時呼籲台廠應積極往高階產品發展。 另以未來新興電子通訊產品探討台灣PCB廠商未來之發展趨勢，智慧型手機由於傳統手機商、PDA與PND廠商紛紛相互蠶食智慧型手機市場，且因金融海嘯衝擊使全球景氣大幅衰退，各大手機廠商為維持出貨量及搶攻市佔率，採用降價策略，致力於壓低零組件成本，所以接續出現由日本轉單至台灣廠商的現象，使得台灣智慧型手機用的PCB市佔率大幅上升；筆記型電腦方面，不論是HDI板或多層板，台灣的PCB製造廠商皆有能力生產，且台灣廠商佔全球筆記型用PCB板比例約65%，為世界之最。近來推出Ultrabook機種的HDI板需求，對台灣廠商而言為一新商機，並可視為台灣PCB製造廠商擴大筆記型電腦用PCB板市佔率的契機。台灣瀚宇博德與金像為全球最大的筆記型電腦用PCB廠，二者合計約可供應全球50%，因規模經濟而享有成本效益。 台灣PCB從1998年發展至2010年，排名前20大廠商從2家增長為5家，且產值從9億美元提升至將近70億美元。雖然台灣電子零組件產業部分原材料購自日本，但一般銅箔、玻纖紗/布、銅箔基板等日商均已在台灣設廠生產，因此仰賴日本的比重越來越低。 本研究認為台灣PCB產業已達非常成熟的階段，不僅產值占全世界第二，上下游供應鏈也頗為完善，僅特殊上游材料部分仍須仰賴日本進口，因此未來必須提升這些關鍵材料如BT樹脂材料等高階物料的自製能力，且可利用本次311地震的機會，積極與日本廠商建立策略聯盟關係，不僅可鞏固原料來源，更可學習其技術。同時，除了PCB本身的技術提升外，台灣廠商也必須隨時注意下游終端產品的發展趨勢隨時因應產品需求，如此一來，台灣PCB產業將在不久的未來取代日本成為全球PCB領導國。

This research studies the impact of 311 earthquake in Japan on high-tech industry and the consequent influence on worldwide development of PCB industry, topped off with the discussion of how PCB will evolve with the progress of electronic products. PCB is hailed as “the mother of electronic system products” for the reason that it is an indispensible key component in electronic products. Japan is the leading country in global PCB industry and it is the primary production country of high-end PCB materials. The 311 earthquake’s biggest impact on high-tech industry in Taiwan is the semiconductor industry, while that on electronic key components mainly goes to PCB industry. Fortunately, PCB firms in Japan are able to deploy their capacity from plants in overseas to temporarily make up for the shortage. Besides, because the technology gap in flexible PCB between Taiwan and Japan is shortened and global business configuration is flexible, 311 earthquake in Japan is a propeller that drives firms in Taiwan entering global supply chain. However, facing the threat from Korean firms in flexible PCB industry, firms in Taiwan should actively enhance their technology and be certified. As far as the raw materials in the upstream concerned, firms in Taiwan have been developing high-end copper for a long time and many clients are willing to use products from Taiwan, leading to the phenomenon of order transfers in related high-end products. As for CCL, BT resin for IC substrate suffered the most from the 311 earthquake in Japan, makes the IC substrate firms realize the importance of increasing the number of suppliers and risk diversification. The order transfer phenomenon has gradually become long term supply relationship, wherein Nan Ya Corporation in Taiwan has been certified by international PCB company, wishing that firms in Taiwan should actively develop high-end products. In the discussion of future development of PCB firms in Taiwan via the trend of thriving electronics products, because the competition among traditional cell phones, PDAs and PNDs erodes the market of smart phones and smart phone firms employ price-cutting strategy by lowering the cost of components. There are orders transferred from Japan to Taiwan, resulting in the tremendous increase in market share of PCB for smart phone use. As for laptops, PCB manufacturers in Taiwan are able to produce both HDI and MLB, and Taiwan accounts for approximately 65% of laptop PCBs, the largest worldwide. Recently, the Ultrabook models’ demand for HDI is a new business opportunity for firms in Taiwan and that can be regarded as a chance for these firms to increase the market share of PCB for laptops. In Taiwan, Hann Star Board Corporation and Gold Circuit Electronics account for 50% of global PCB for laptops and are cost efficient due to economies of production scale. From 1998 to 2010, Taiwan PCB firms increase from 2 to 5 in global top 20 and production raises from US 0.9 billion to US 7 billion. Although several electronics parts and materials are procured from Japan, Japanese copper, glass fiber/yarn and CCL have set up capacity in Taiwan and thus lower Taiwan’s dependence on Japan. This study suggests that Taiwan’s PCB industry has reached a very mature stage, not only the value ranking second worldwide, but the supply chain is complete. However, there are still several special materials rely on the import form Japan, and thus firms in Taiwan should enhance the production ability in key materials such as BT resin in an attempt to escape the constraints from foreign monopolistic suppliers. Thus the 311 earthquake in Japan offers the opportunity for Taiwan’s PCB industry to establish strategic alliance with Japanese suppliers in order to consolidate supply of those materials and also to learn their technology. Meanwhile, other than the enhancement of PCB technology, firms in Taiwan should keep an eye on the future development of end products to cater to their demand. This way, Taiwan PCB industry is expected to replace Japan as the leading PCB country in the near future.