台灣房價變動與所得分配不均之實證研究

Abstract

台灣的經濟在近數十年來迅速發展，人民逐漸富足，生活水準也比以往提升了許多。然而，快速發展的背後也引發了許多社會問題。2012年的一項調查顯示，房價過高、所得過低、貧富差距擴大分別位居「十大民怨」的前三名，不斷飆升的房價不但使得大部分的民眾無力負擔，更無形中擴大了貧富差距，其背後隱藏的泡沫化危機更是政府不得不正視的問題。 本文運用統計迴歸、時間序列的方式建立一台灣總體計量模型，樣本期間為1961:1-2011:3，並以此模型評估模擬以下三種情境之影響：(1)房價大幅上漲或下跌；(2)放款利率調升或調降；(3)吉尼係數上升或下降。我們可以得到以下的結論：當房價持續飆漲，雖可帶動實質國內生產毛額增加，但卻會造成物價上漲、失業率攀升、薪資指數下跌與貧富差距擴大等社會問題；若政府以調低放款利率進行打房，雖可成功抑制房價，卻會引發經濟衰退之惡果；至於吉尼係數與台灣經濟成長間為正向關係，貧富不均固然對有利於台灣的經濟成長，卻會引發失業率暴增、薪資指數下跌等嚴重後果，甚至可能造成社會動盪不安，浪費許多不必要的公共資源。

The economy of Taiwan is develop quickly in recent decades,people become richer than before,and the standard of living promote a lot.However,the rapid development has also led to many social problems.There is a survey in 2012 shows that the price of houses are too high,the income too low and the widening gap between the rich and the poor were ranked the top three of ten grievances.The soaring price of houses not only makes the majority of people cannot afford,but also expands the gap between rich and poor,the Government have no choice but to pay much attention to the bubble crisis behind it. This thesis use statistical regression,time series approach to build a macro-econometric model of Taiwan,the sample period is from 1961:1-2010:3,and we use it to perform scenario analysis under the following three situations: (1) The house prices rise or fall fiercely; (2) Raised or lowered the lending rate; (3) Increase or decrease of the Gini coefficient.We can get the following conclusions:When the house prices continued soaring,even though it can driven the real gross domestic product increased,but it will result in a lot of social problems such as rising prices and unemployment rate,the wage index fell and the widening wealth gap;if the Government intend to reduce the house prices by lowering the lending rate,can suppress the house prices successfully,but will lead to the consequence of economic recession;as for the positive relationship between the Gini coefficient and the economic growth in Taiwan, indicating the uneven distribution of wealth is certainly conducive to the economic growth,but it will cause serious consequences such as rising unemployment rate and falling wage index,and even cause social unrest,waste a lot of public resources.