台灣家庭網路電視服務產業結構與情境分析

Abstract

本研究主要目的在探討家庭網路電視服務產業未來可能的發展情境，並以電信業者為焦點廠商，探討其面對產業不確定性下的可行策略作為。 本研究首先針對產業發展的歷史進行探索，勾勒出網路電視服務產業的結構，發現有線、線上影音與電信業者三個陣營未來將在此價值鏈上產生複雜的競合關係。接著，我們以六力分析探討了電信業者所面對的網路電視服務產業之現狀與產業特性。分析結果顯示電信業者面對的是具有高度議價力的供應者與消費者，以及具有先佔優勢的業內競爭者。此外，還遭遇平台與設備業者所帶來的中度潛在進入威脅與低度互補者專有程度。最後，歸納其產業特性包括：開放與封閉並存的產業服務平台、維持傳統電視付費的使用者需求、來自跨產業的競爭、數位內容與系統迴路為關鍵互補資產，以及價值整合的高度進入障礙。 從產業分析的結果與專家訪談的支持，本研究建立起影響產業情境發展的重要不確定性因素，將上述不確定因素歸類成廣電三法與電信法整合程度與電信商補貼消費者程度兩項情境模擬變數，而依這些因素的因果關係整合成兩種一致性的情境。在情境3的情境下，電信業者面臨網路電視成為政府數位電視政策的主軸、獲得利益團體的遊說與背書，以及家庭訂戶數量穩定增加等因素，情境發展對電信商最為有利。針對此情境，本研究對電信業者提出若干建議，包括：提供產業經驗與人才、宣告重大投資、補貼促進需求、擴大建設、穩定內容、主動與平台業者和有線電視業者合作。

The primary object of this research is to systematically build the future scenario of internet protocol television service industry in Taiwan. Taking the telecommunication carriers as focal firm, we explore critical factors driving the possible changes of competitive situation strategic behaviors these players may undertake. Our research started from the review of the history of digital TV industry in general. Then, we depicted the value chain of IPTV industry. We found that there are three major parties, i.e., Cable, OTT TV and IPTV, who maintain co-opetitive relationships along the industry evoltuion. Based on six-forces analysis, we further identified the process of internet protocol television services industry and its characteristics from which. We show that the carriers are relatively weak in bargaining with their suppliers and consumers, and they lost the first mover advantage versus their competitors. In addition, they suffered a moderate level threat from potential entrants and a low level of complementary asset specificity. We finally concluded several key features of the industry, including both open and closed service platforms stayed together, the users tended to follow their traditional approach to receive TV programs, and competition will come across boudnry, digital content and the system loop were critical complementary, as well as the value integration of platform would constitute high barriers to new entry. With these analyses, we further identified two scenario variables, including the extent of deregulation of digital TV licence, and the extent of the telecommunication carriers’ willness to subsidize. Based on these scenario variables, two scenarios were established accordingly. We found that “thrid’’ scenario, which refer to the scenario that carriers faces that IPTV will be the priority of the governmental policy, receive the strong support from the interest group, and the number of household subscribers will increase steady, it would be the most advantageous to the carriers. Strategic suggestions based on such a scenario are also proposed.