2008年俄羅斯對南奧塞梯衝突之決策：一個理性決策模式分析

Abstract

南奧塞梯與喬治亞的族群紛爭，是高加索動盪不安的來源之一。喬治亞境內的南奧塞 梯，與俄羅斯境內的北奧塞梯屬於同一民族，兩者在歷史的轉折與地理的阻隔之下， 形成了當今的分治局面。相對於俄羅斯庇護之下的北奧塞梯，南奧塞梯的民族歷程， 並不如預期般順遂平和，而是在與喬治亞的長期對抗之下逐步完成。 南奧塞梯與喬治亞的衝突，在納入俄羅斯與喬治亞的因素之後顯得更為複雜。早在蘇 聯時期俄喬之間的利益基礎即有所動搖，而在冷戰結束之後迅速瓦解。喬治亞在經歷 了幾次政權更替之後，意識形態的立即轉變導致了俄喬關係的持續惡化。2008年喬治 亞偵察機事件的爭議，提供了喬治亞一次挑戰俄羅斯的契機，也成為日後俄喬之間爆 發戰爭的導火線。喬治亞因不滿南奧塞梯與北奧塞梯的密切聯繫，而採取了先發制人 的軍事鎮壓，此時俄羅斯亦發動了反制喬軍的武裝行動。俄喬戰事在兩軍實力懸殊之 下，以俄羅斯擊潰喬治亞暫時結束，並在法國的調停之下，雙方簽訂了六項停火協議 。俄羅斯隨後更承認南奧塞梯的國際地位，而聯合國安全理事會、歐洲安全暨合作組 織等，亦陸續召開緊急會議予以回應。 俄羅斯與喬治亞的武裝衝突成為俄羅斯處理民族自決議題，以及分離主義問題的重要 參考。本研究試圖以理性決策模式的架構,透過目標確立、選項排列、後果評估、抉擇 完成的途徑，逐步檢視俄羅斯的決策行為是否理性。由於南奧塞梯的情勢發展，與國 際社會其他利害關係者息息相關，如何將決策各方納入研究分析,於是成為本論文的主 要挑戰。 武裝途徑對於俄羅斯而言，是否為回應喬南衝突的最適選項，而非其他方案所能取代 。同時俄喬戰爭的後續結果，是否又符合效用效大的決策效果，成為本研究分析所欲 探討的核心議題。

The ethnic conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia, is considered to be one of the sources of unrest in Caucasus. Despite sharing a common ethnicity and religion, South Ossetia and North Ossetia have become separate entities in Georgia and Russia, under different historical and geographical contexts. Unlike in North Ossetia, how political development flourished gradually under the protection of Russia, South Ossetia’s national course has progressed unsteadily in its long-term struggle with Georgia. The complexity of the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict heightens, as Russia and Georgia continue to cast variables into the dispute. As early as the Soviet period, the foundation of Russia and Georgia’s interests have shattered to an extent, that it finally collapsed not long after the end of the Cold War. Georgia, after several transitions of regimes, has rapidly shifted its ideology which eventually led to the deterioration of its fragile relationship with Russia. The 2008 Georgian reconnaissance craft incident, offered Georgia an opportunity to stand before Russia, which also brought the two adversaries into war. Georgia’s discontent with South Ossetia’s intercourse with North Ossetia, has led to an execution of preemptive military suppression, where simultaneously Russia also launched a military counteraction in response. As a result of asymmetrical military capacity, the 2008 Russia-Georgia war ended instantly, as a cease-fire agreement was carried out by France and signed by the two contestants. Russia then established official diplomatic relations with South Ossetia, where a series of discussion on how to cope with the aftermath of the incident, also took place within the United Nations Security Council, the Organization for Security and Co- operation in Europe and many other multilateral platforms. The military confrontation between Russia and Georgia, has become a crucial reference for Russia’s management of issues such as self-determination and separatism. This research attempts to examine the rationality of Russia’s policy decision, under the theoretical structure of the Rational Actor Model, by deconstructing Russia’s objectives, options, consequences and choice towards the South Ossetia incident. Taking into account other international stakeholders that may have been involved in the South Ossetia dispute, the challenge to contain all potential actors into one analytic body, therefore becomes a major task of this research. Whether or not Russia considers a military resolution, rather than diplomatic negotiation or non-intervention, the best possible solution to the conflict in South Ossetia, remains a crucial debate in this research. In addition, whether or not the result of the Russia-Georgia conflict is compatible to a maximized utility of national interests, also remains as the most essential course of this research.