社會階級與投票抉擇—以2008年總統選舉分析

Abstract

一般多認為台灣政治分歧為「省籍族群」以及「統獨」等議題，較忽略階級因素，歷年來關於台灣選民投票行為的研究，甚少著墨在階級因素上，不似歐美民主國家中階級在選舉過程中所扮演的極重要角色，甚至可以作為選民投票的預示物，在台灣選舉研究中階級相關的討論寂靜許多，確實台灣主要活躍的幾大政黨，也非以階級為基調的階級政黨。然而，台灣在經歷與西方先進國家相同的民主化與工業化歷程，隨著經濟議題的重要，社會分野也越來越精細，台灣社會出現了階級分化的現象，並且此階級差異會反映在政治的投票抉擇上。本文使用亞洲民主動態調查：台灣地區調查計畫（2011）所釋出的資料，並檢視2008年總統選舉的結果作為分析，藉由調查研究資料的分析，以解釋本文主要所欲探討的兩個主題：其一為社會階級與投票抉擇的關係為何？第二為試探階級在政治上所扮演的實質角色為何？ 首先分析「階級」與投票抉擇之間的關聯，階級投票乃是反映了特定階級選擇投票給某一政黨或候選人的傾向，是一種介於階級與投票行為之間的聯合模式。本文發現來台灣社會上出現的階級差異，會造成投票結果的不同，其中中上階級的民眾呈現出較為傾向投票給泛藍陣營的候選人，而中下階級則傾向投票給泛綠陣營。資產階級與中產階級傾向投票給泛藍陣營，相較於其他兩個階級來說明顯偏高；農工階級支持泛綠陣營的比例也比其他階級來得高；邊際中產階級仍然呈現出處於中間的位置，屬於略為偏向支持泛藍的態度。這樣的結果與多數研究台灣社會階級所得到的結果並無太大出入，顯示即使台灣並未出現階級政黨，然而台灣主要的政治分野確實呈現出依照階級分化的分歧。 除此之外，本文假設：在控制其他重要政治分歧的影響下，經濟上不利於己的評價會形成相對剝奪感，與階級利益結合，形成勞工與農民階級較傾向支持泛綠的現象。然而，透過資料的分析，發現在控制了其他變數的影響力下，階級利益與相對剝奪感結合，進而型塑了選民的投票抉擇模式，這種交互作用效果卻發生在中產階級身上最為顯著，相對剝奪感越大的中產階級選民，會是呈現出投票給泛綠而非泛藍的傾向，換言之，中產階級的民眾，一旦相對剝奪感升高，便會降低原本支持泛藍陣營的機率，轉而支持泛綠陣營。正是收入位於社會上中間位置，職業包含了以技能、學歷、文憑為取向的事業和管理人才以及小型企業主，他們的支持與行為也傾向以現實的利益作為判準，因此相對剝奪感的增加會使得中產階級選民的現實性格更為明顯，危害了既有利益而反應在政治行為上，反而從泛藍陣營的支持者轉而傾向投票給泛綠陣營。由此可見，台灣確實存在階級投票的現象，中上階級的民眾傾向支持泛藍陣營，而中下階級的民眾則傾向支持泛綠陣營，同時階級利益會與相對剝奪感產生交互作用的影響，進而形塑不同階級的選民的投票行為，更是顯示出台灣特殊的階級投票現象。

When talking to the major division in Taiwan’s politics, people always think about the ethnicity, national identity, or unification / independence attitude. Discussion of social class and voting has been hotly discussed for a long time in the west. Sometimes social class is a strong predictor of voting behavior. However, people seldom study the connection between one’s class position and one’s voting choice here in Taiwan. Since Taiwan has experienced the similar mode of modernization and democratization with western democracies, the shape of class structure alters and can account for variations in voters’ voting choice. The main focus of this thesis is to examine the relationship between voter’s class position and his/her voting choice, and further examine the actual political influence of social class in Taiwan, in particular with respect to voters’ voting behaviors. The idea of class voting refers to the tendency for voters in a particular class to vote for a specific political party, political candidate, or groupings, rather than an alternative option, compared with another class or classes. The paper examines linkages by using questionnaires from Asian Barometer, released in 2011. Analysis of the data obtained previously produces a number of interesting findings. First, the social class is becoming increasingly important in 2008 presidential election. The upper class is inclined to vote for Pan-Blue whereas the lower class shows a preference of voting for Pan-Green. Voters’ class locations in capitalists and middle class are inclined to support pan-blue parties; in contrast, voters from working class and farmer have a tendency to vote for pan-green parties. Second, to examine the real role social class plays in politics, the paper uses the idea of relative deprivation. Here the paper proposed that one’s feeling of relative deprivation and class interests would integrate with each other and lead him/her to vote for a specific party. While controlling other control variables, social class as an explanatory variable had a significant impact on voting choice. Furthermore, we found that the feeling of relative deprivation had an interaction effect with class position that actually influence one’s voting choice, especially for voters in middle class. For middle class voters, the higher level of relative deprivation they have, they may have little inclination to vote for pan-blue party; instead, the higher possibility for them to vote for the pan-green party.