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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 許建宗 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chun Chi Wu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 吳純綺 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T17:47:53Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2014-08-17 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2012-08-17 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2012-08-13 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Aires-da-Silva, A., M. Maunder, et al. (2012). Updated Standardized Catch Rates for Pacific Bluefin Tuna Caught by United States and Mexican-flag Purse Seine Fisheries in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (1960-2011). Pacific Bluefin Tuna Working Group Data Preparatory Meeting, International Scientific Commission of Stock Assessment on Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean, February 29-March 8, 2012, ISC/12/PBFWG-1/18, La Jolla, USA. http://isc.ac.affrc.go.jp/reports/pbf/pbf_2012_1.html
Anonymous (2008). Report of the Pacific Bluefin Tuna Working Group Workshop. International Scientific Commission of Stock Assessment on Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean. May 28-June 4, Shimizu, Japan. http://isc.ac.affrc.go.jp/reports/isc/isc8_reports.html#Plenary Anonymous (2009). Report of the Statistics Working Group Workshop. Statistics Working Group Workshop, International Scientific Commission of Stock Assessment on Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean. July 10-1, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. http://isc.ac.affrc.go.jp/reports/pbf/pbf_2009.html Anonymous (2011). Report of the 2011 ICCAT yellowfin tuna stock assessment session. International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas. http://www.iccat.es/Documents/SCRS/ExecSum/YFT_EN.pdf Anonymous (2012). Report of the Pacific Bluefin Tuna Working Group Workshop. International Scientific Commission of Stock Assessment on Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean. May 23- June 6, Shimizu, Japan. http://isc.ac.affrc.go.jp/reports/isc/isc12_reports.html#Plenary Bayes, M. and M. Price (1763). An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. By the Late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. Communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S. Philosophical Transactions (1683-1775) 53: 370-418. Beverton, R. J. H. and S. J. Holt (1957). On the dynamics of exploited fish populations.1993 edition, with errata. Fish and Fisheries Series 11. Chapman & Hall, London. 533pp. Chen, K.-S., P. Crone, and C. C. Hsu (2006). Reproductive biology of female Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis from south-western North Pacific Ocean. Fisheries Science 72: 985-994. Francis, R. I. C. C. (1992). Use of Risk Analysis to Assess Fishery Management Strategies: A Case Study using Orange Roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) on the Chatham Rise, New Zealand. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 49(5): 922-930. Haddon, M. and M. H. Haddon (2010). Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries, Second Edition. Taylor & Francis. 465pp. Hilborn, R. (1992). Current and future trends in fisheries stock assessment and management. South African Journal of Marine Science 12(1): 975-988. Lee, H. H. (2008). Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of population dynamics for Pacific bluefin tuna using Bayesian state-space models. Doctorate Dissertation, Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University. Taipei. 91pp. Liermann, M. and R. Hilborn (1997). Depensation in fish stocks: a hierarchic Bayesian meta-analysis. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 54(9): 1976-1984. Lunn, D., D. Spiegelhalter, A. Thomas and N. Best (2009). The BUGS project: Evolution, critique, and future directions. Statisitcs in Medicine 28: 3049-3067. Mace, P. M., I. J. Doonan (1988). A Generalised Bioeconomic Simulation Model for Fish Population Dynamics. MAFFish, N.Z. Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries. Mangel, M., J. Brodziak and G. DiNardo (2010). Reproductive ecology and scientific inference of steepness: a fundamental metric of population dynamics and strategic fisheries management. Fish and Fisheries 11(1): 89-104. Maunder, M. N. (2012). Evaluating the stock–recruitment relationship and management reference points: Application to summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in the U.S. mid-Atlantic. Fisheries Research 125-126: 20-26. McAllister, M. K., E. K. Pikitch, A. E. Punt and R. Hilborn (1994). A Bayesian Approach to Stock Assessment and Harvest Decisions Using the Sampling/Importance Resampling Algorithm. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 51(12): 2673-2687. Michielsens, C. G. J. and M. K. McAllister (2004). A Bayesian hierarchical analysis of stock-recruit data: quantifying structural and parameter uncertainties. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61(6): 1032-1047. Penn, J. W. and N. Caputi (1986). Spawning stock-recruitment relationships and environmental influences on the tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) fishery in Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 37(4): 491-505. Punt, A. E. and R. A. Y. Hilborn (1997). Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis: the Bayesian approach. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 7(1): 35-63. Quinn, T. J. and R. B. Deriso (1999). Quantitative Fish Dynamics. Oxford University Press. 560pp. Ricker, W. E. (1958). Maximum sustainable yields from fluctuating environments and mixed stocks. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 15: 991-1006. Shimose, T., T. Tanabe, K. S. Chen and C. C. Hsu (2009). Age determination and growth of Pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus orientalis, off Japan and Taiwan. Fisheries Research 100(2): 134-139. Tanaka, Y., M. Mohri and H. Yamada (2007). Distribution, growth and hatch date of juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis in the coastal area of the Sea of Japan. Fisheries Science 73(3): 534-542. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/64450 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 產卵群-加入群曲線決定加入群如何隨產卵群而變動,可以用來估計生物參考
點如FMSY,在漁業生物資源評估中為一重要數量分析模式。此模式之參數,陡度 (steepness)常用來重新參數化產卵群-加入群模式,亦為決定此曲線形狀之重要參數。 陡度為產卵群在其原始水平之20%所產生之加入群與原始水平加入群的比值,其 理論數值範圍介在0.2至1.0。較高的陡度值表示此生物系群在遭到開發後,擁有較 佳的回復力,且加入群的變動主要受到環境影響而非產卵群。過去進行太平洋黑 鮪(Thunnus orientalis)資源評估時,多以假設陡度值為1.0並以敏感度分析測驗。本 研究利用貝氏統計重新估算太平洋黑鮪的產卵群-加入群曲線之陡度值;以生產量 模式在合併與未合併漁業情況下估算系群之生物量,並設定具訊息與非訊息的事 前機率分布來估算事後機率分布。兩種不同的事前機率分布設定所產生的事後機 率分布差異不大(其事後分布之平均值分別為:訊息者為0.98,非訊息者為0.94), 顯示太平洋黑鮪確實具有高陡度值的潛力;即其加入群量受到產卵群密度的影響 較小。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | To formulate the stock-recruitment (S-R) curve is one of the essential tasks in fishery stock assessment. Steepness is generally used to re-parameterize the S-R relationship thereby providing insight on resilience of a stock under exploitation. High steepness implies that a stock is relatively resilient. In this study, we use a Bayesian approach to re-estimate steepness of the Beverton-Holt S-R curve for the Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) on the basis of the production model incorporating multiple fisheries. Previous steepness estimates (h ~ 1) for Pacific bluefin tuna seem too high to be plausible. Substantially, we evaluate the effects of using an uninformative prior vs. an informative prior based on information from other studies on posteriors of steepness. Our analysis shows small discrepancy between the two priors on their posteriors. The estimations of steepness (0.98 from vague-prior setting, and 0.94 from informative-prior setting) suggest that Pacific Bluefin tuna may be sensitive to variable environmental conditions. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T17:47:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-101-R99241201-1.pdf: 910315 bytes, checksum: c36dabf14dbfe740a745baeb5a5e0637 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員審定書 .............................................................................................................. i 致謝 .................................................................................................................................ii 中文摘要 ........................................................................................................................iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................... iv Contents ........................................................................................................................... v Chapter 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................1
Chapter 2. Material and method .....................................................................6 2.1 Data Source ...........................................................................................................6 2.1.1 Reported Catch ............................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 CPUE Data .....................................................................................................7 2.2 Production Model .................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1PriorDistributionandtheLikelihood .........................................................10 2.2.2 The Updated Runs ...................................................................................... 11 2.3 Stock-recruitment Model.....................................................................................12 2.4 Bayesian Model ................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 3. Results......................................................................................................16 3.1 Bayesian Production Model ................................................................................16 3.2 Biomass ...............................................................................................................17 3.3 Stock-recruitment Model.....................................................................................17 Chapter 4. Discussion..............................................................................................19 4.1 Production Model ................................................................................................ 19 4.2 Biomass ...............................................................................................................20 4.3 Stock-recruitment Model.....................................................................................21 4.4 General Discussion..............................................................................................22 References .....................................................................................................................23 Tables ............................................................................................................................. 28 Figures ........................................................................................................................... 33 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.title | 利用貝氏統計估計產卵群-加入群關係之陡度 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Estimating Steepness of Stock-Recruitment Relationship Using Bayesian Analysis | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 100-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 王慧瑜,郭慶老,陳志遠,黃向文 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 太平洋黑鮪,貝氏統計,產卵群-加入群模式,陡度值, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | steepness,Bayesian statistic,Pacific bluefin tuna,stock-recruitment relationship, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 45 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2012-08-14 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 海洋研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 海洋研究所 | |
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