美國飛彈防禦對太空軍備管制的挑戰(1996-2008):現實主義理論觀之分析

Abstract

美國國家飛彈防禦(National Missile Defense, NMD)是人類有史以來最為龐大、最為繁複、最為昂貴與最具爭議的軍事防衛計畫。該自計劃雖是源自於冷戰時期美國的「戰略防禦方案」(Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI)，但卻是直到二十一世紀小布希(George W. Bush)總統就職後，才獲得充分的發展與獲取重大成就。正因如此，故俄羅斯、中共與美國等強權因NMD的爭議而引起的軍事競逐，即成為當前國際政治的熱點。 據此，本論文即以美國飛彈防禦對太空軍備管制的挑戰(1996-2008)為題，從太空軍備管制的內涵與發展、美國國家飛彈防禦之發展、飛彈防禦系統對太空軍備管制的衝擊、強權國家的反應、美國對強權國家的反應與其破壞國際典則之因應、評估分析與未來展望等六大主題，探究這個論題。並藉由國際關係之現實主義理論來評論和分析美國飛彈防禦對當前與未來之太空軍備管制的挑戰，以及美國、俄羅斯、中共與歐盟等強權之間的軍事外交互動，以及如此之互動對國際政治局勢的影響。 從本論文之研究發現，小布希極力發展美國國家飛彈防禦不僅對以往既有的太空軍備管制造成極為嚴重的負面影響，且阻礙了當前國際社會正在努力創建新的太空軍備管制典則的發展。除此之外，俄羅斯和中共更將美國飛彈防禦之軍事防禦作為，視為是其國家安全之重大威脅。於是乎，中俄除了加強軍備建構因應之外，這兩國並進行外交聯合，以阻止美國飛彈防禦進一步的發展與部署。中俄兩國的聯合外交作為包括倡議創建新的太空軍備管制條約以及在防範飛彈與大規模毀滅性武器(weapons of mass destruction, WMD)擴散之消極不合作或抵制的作為。在此情況下，美國飛彈防禦引起中俄兩大強權的對抗之舉，特別是在防範武器擴散之抵制作為，反而使得飛彈與WMD擴散更為嚴重，而當前伊朗中程彈道飛彈(medium-range ballistic missile, MRBM)與核武發展，都是在俄羅斯的支持下而獲得重大成就者。然此則破壞了美國在外交積極進行防範飛彈與WMD擴散之努力，進而讓其國家安全遭受更為嚴峻的挑戰。 無論是美國建構飛彈防禦之舉，或者是中俄兩國對美國飛彈防禦進行抵制之作為，事實上，這都可從現實主義對國際政治的探究中，獲得良好的解釋與分析，故此論文正是以此優點來探究和分析強權之間的權力競逐。儘管如此，但吾人以為現實主義並無法解決強權國家因軍備競賽而陷入安全困境的問題，故而提出國際關係之後現代主義對解構國家與混合認同之論，作為如何跳脫強權安全困境之思考。

The U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) is the most giant, most complicated, most expensive, and most controversial military defense project in history. The military defense project is derived from the U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) in the Cold War era, but until President George W. Bush performs and pushes it in twenty-first century. President George W. Bush’s effort lets the development and deployment of the U.S. NMD access to significant achievement. For this reason, NMD induces the military race among Russia, China and the U.S, which has become a hot topic of the current international politics. Accordingly, the doctoral dissertation, the title of the U.S. missile defenses to Arms Control in outer space (1996-2008), I would like to explore this topic from six themes of the content and development of arms control in outer space, the development of the U.S. NMD, missile defense system’s impact on arms control in outer space, the reactions of great powers, the response of the U.S. to great powers’ reaction and its destruction of the international regimes, and assessment, analysis, and prospect. By realist theory of international relations to evaluate and analyze the challenges of the U.S. missile defense on the current and future arms control in outer space, as well as military and diplomatic interactions among Russia, China, European Union and the U.S., and such as interaction how to impact on the current international situation. From this dissertation research, President George W. Bush makes his best effort to push the development of the U.S. NMD that it not only cause a very serious negative impact on the existed arms control in outer space but also hinder the international society in working to create a new regime of arms control in outer space. In addition, Russia and China regard the military defense of the U.S. missile defense as a considerable threat to their national security. Based on this reason, China and Russia need to strengthen their military capabilities in order to respond to the threat from the U.S. missile defense, and this two countries have very close diplomatic joint actions to impede the further development and deployment of the U.S. missile defense. The joint diplomatic actions from China and Russia are inclusive of initiating to construct a new treaty of arms control in outer space and doing passive non-cooperation or taking resistance in preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In this case, the U.S. missile defense cause the resistance from China and Russia, especially as to prevent the proliferation of weapons of boycott, on the contrast, it will let the proliferation of missile and WMD more and more serious. For Example, the development of the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) and nuclear weapon in Iran, these achievements are supported by Russia. However, this situation destroys the diplomatic effort of the U.S. in actively preventing the proliferation of missile and WMD, and thereby allowing the U.S. national security suffers more severe challenge. Whether the military construction of the U.S. missile defense or the resistance of China and Russia to the U.S. missile defense system, in fact, these can get an excellent interpretation and analysis form the realist theory of international relations, so this dissertation employs the excellences of realism to explore and analyze the power struggle among great powers. Nevertheless, I think that realism can not resolve the problem of great powers’ security dilemma because of their arms race. For this reason, I provide the discourse of destructing nation and hybridity from postmodernism of international relation to be a thought that great powers how to escape the security dilemma.