臺灣日本鰻與鱸鰻養殖之成本效益分析

Abstract

Key (1940) 曾提出值得深思的問題：「什麼基礎上決定分配X元於A活動而非B活動？」成本效益分析部分回應了上述問題，強調於效率概念，分配資源給創造最高效率的活動與計畫。早在1987年時，世界鰻魚消耗量就已達到每年10-11萬公噸。日本就消耗70-80％的世界總生產量，這數值近乎完全為日本和台灣的鰻魚總生產量(Heinsbroek, 1991) 。1990-1999年日本的日本鰻生產量下降40%，但其消費量卻呈現持續增長(Satoh et al., 2001) 。 鱸鰻養殖在台灣自2009年4月1日解除其保育禁令，這三年來不少人開始投入鱸鰻養殖之領域，由於其鰻苗價格相較於日本鰻苗價格低廉，再者因國內市場及國外大陸市場的高需求量，成為新興起的養殖產業。本研究將運用成本效益分析指標Net present value (NPV) 、Benefit cost ratio (B/C ratio) 和Internal rate of return (IRR) 來探討台灣的日本鰻和鱸鰻養殖產業之發展性。 NPV是用來檢視計畫方案的整體淨效益，即是將各期總成本和總效益差值之現值加總，所以當淨現值越大的計畫越值得採行。B/C ratio是檢視平均每單位成本所帶來的效益大小，所以當B/C ratio值大於1時該計畫可提高效益，值越大其優先順序就越高。IRR則用於衡量投資計畫的實質獲利能力。目前1999-2012年日本鰻成本比例指出50-80％為魚苗成本、15-40％為餌料成本和剩餘10-20％為其他成本。魚苗成本2006-2012年由每尾新台幣30元飆漲至155元，餌料成本亦是由每公斤45元漲至57元，但生產批發價格亦由四尾一公斤270元上升至1580元。而鱸鰻養殖產業由2009年開放至目前2012年，其成本比例指出30-40%為魚苗成本，40-50%為飼料成本。魚苗成本2009-2012由每尾新台幣1.4元漲至5.1元，因為近年來投入鱸鰻養殖的人數增加，使得鱸鰻苗價格上升。而生產批發價也有增加的趨勢。日本鰻養殖產業的NPV值為新台幣6064千元，IRR值為56％，B/C ratio是1.1。鱸鰻養殖產業的NPV值為新台幣25264千元，IRR值為17％，B/C ratio是1.3。結果顯示出無論是日本鰻或是鱸鰻養殖，目前都為具有利益之產業。其中本研究結果認為鱸鰻養殖產業的長期投資會較日本鰻養殖產業來得佳，因NPV值約為日本鰻產業的3倍，B/C ratio亦較高，而IRR值是由於鱸鰻養殖期至少要3年，而日本鰻僅1年即可上市。本研究結果指出鱸鰻養殖產業的獲利前瞻性較日本鰻養殖產業來得有利。

Key (1940) has mentioned that “On what basis shall it be decided to allocate X dollars to activity A instead of B？” Cost and benefit analysis partially answers the question: it emphasizes efficiency and distributes resource to the most efficient project; Early in 1987, the world eel consumption reached approximately 100-110 thousand tons per year. Japan alone accounted for about 70-80％ of it. This was about the total eel production of Taiwan and Japan (Heinsbroek, 1991). Eel production in Japan has decreased by almost 40% in the last decade from 1990 to 1999. In contrast, the eel consumption in Japan has steadily increased (Satoh et al., 2001). On lifting the ban of protection on Apr. 1, 2009, the giant mottled eel farming in Taiwan has attracted many farmers in these three years. Because its larva price is cheaper than that of Japanese eel and it has huge domestic and international markets, it becomes a rising aquaculture species in Taiwan. This study employs some indicators used in the cost and benefit analysis such as net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (B/C ratio) and internal rate of return (IRR) to explore the development of aquaculture industries for Japanese eel and giant mottled eel. NPV is a total of net revenues, sum of all differences between each year of the total cost and total benefit, utilized to inspect an entire net benefit of a project, so when NPV is larger, the project is more lucrative. The B/C ratio is a value of the benefits per unit versus cost. When the B/C ratio is >1, it means that the project can make money. Therefore, when the project has higher B/C ratio, it has a high priority of being invested. The IRR is the actual profitability of the investment project. The percentage of the cost of Japanese eel aquaculture allocated 50-80% to fry cost, 15-40% to feed cost and10- 20% to other cost. Its larva price rocketed from NT$30 in 2006 to NT$155 in 2012 and feed cost also increased from NT$45 to NT$57 per kilogram. Its wholesale price (4 eels per kilogram, was raised from NT$270 to NT$1580 per kilogram. Comparatively, the percentage of the cost of giant mottled eel aquaculture allocated 30-40% to fry cost, and 40-50% to feed cost. Its larva price increased from NT$1.4 in 2009 to NT$5.1 in 2012 because in recent year, the farming of the giant mottled eel in Taiwan grew quickly. And its wholesale price, tended to hike. Given some financial statistics: the NPV of Japanese eel aquaculture is NT$ 6,064 thousands, its IRR is 56%, and its B/C ratio is 1.1, while the NPV of giant mottled eel is NT$25,264 thousands, its IRR 17%, and its B/C ratio is 1.3. As a result, both aquaculture industries give good return. Besides, the profitability of the giant mottled eel aquaculture is greater than Japanese eel, because the NPV of giant mottle eel is 3 times higher than that of Japanese eel. Its B/C ratio is higher, too. In terms of IRR, the giant mottled eel takes 3 years of farming while Japanese eel can go to the market within one year. The result of the study may give more prospective profits to giant mottle eel than to Japanese eel.