兩岸空運直航與桃園機場競爭力變遷

Abstract

受制於兩岸政治的對峙情勢，縱使民間經濟交流旺盛，但是直通航線卻被迫中斷；直至2003年，兩岸才透過包機直航開啓被中斷半個多世紀的兩岸航線，常態性直航等到2008年12月之後才終於實現。兩岸空運直航的開啓不僅是兩岸政治交流的一大轉變，對於兩岸之間的經濟交流也影響深遠；但是，身為擔負兩岸空運直航任務的桃園機場，所受影響甚鉅但是卻經常被忽略。臺灣政府於2008年提出桃園航空城計劃，期望將桃園機場以及鄰近區域打造成為東亞重要的航空運輸中心，因此兩岸空運直航的開啟對於桃園機場的影響亟需評估。 開放兩岸空運直航影響桃園機場的航線與航班配置，使得桃園機場在航空網絡中的競爭力出現變化。在航空網絡研究中，對於機場競爭力已經發展出各式不同的評估方法。由於時間是影響旅客選擇航班的重要因素，並且也是航空公司安排航班的重要考量；因此，時間觀點的網絡分析方法在近期成為相關研究的主流。其中，以TDEAT (Time-dependent earliest arrival time)演算法針對航班資訊進行分析最能符合本研究之目的。因此，本研究應用此方法，分析2004、2008與2012年之全球航班資料，探討桃園機場競爭力在開放兩岸空運直航前後的變化。 根據本研究針對不同航空市場之分析，桃園機場在中國相關市場中的表現在開放兩岸空運直航之後有顯著成長，但是在其他市場中則大多持平或衰退，顯然開放兩岸空運直航對於桃園機場競爭力之助益不如原先預期。本研究認為，中國政府對於中國人民搭乘兩岸航班來臺灣轉機之限制是造成此一結果之主因，而航空公司對於兩岸航線的過度依賴以及桃園機場在尖峰時刻的擁擠程度則為次要因素。此一結果應該受到臺灣有關單位以及航空從業人員之注意，據此修改當前的兩岸直航政策並且研擬適當之航空產業發展策略。

Though there have been economic interactions between Taiwan and China since 1970s, direct flights across Taiwan Strait have been suspended by 2000s due to the political rivals between two sides. Through negotiations, regular direct flights finally started in December 2008. Taoyuan Airport is the main airport in Taiwan, and is expected to be developed as the main hub in East Asia by Taiwan government. Direct flights across Taiwan Strait may have impacts on Taoyuan Airport’s competitiveness. However, the study of the changes in airline network and competitiveness of Taoyuan Airport remains unexplored. The main purpose of this study is to examine the changes of the airline network and airport competitiveness of Taoyuan Airport after the opening of direct flights between Taiwan and China. Because airline networks are time-varying and travel time is essential for path choices of passengers, this study applys TDEAT (time-dependent earliest arrival time) algorithm and uses schedule data of global flights in 2004, 2008 and 2012 to assess the changes of Taoyuan Airport’s competitiveness. The empirical results show that the changes of competitiveness of Taoyuan Airport varied in different aviation markets. Taoyuan Airport showed rather evident growths in China-related markets but suffered in others. Broadly speaking, the growth of competitiveness of Taoyuan Airport is not as evident as expected by many, which should be alarming to Taiwan government and carrier managers in forming development strategies to elevate the competitiveness of Taoyuan Airport.