DSSAT作物模式與統計時間序列應用於預測臺灣氣候變化對水稻產量影響之比較

Abstract

全球暖化已是近年之趨勢，根據聯合國政府間氣候變遷委員會(IPCC)的報告指出，區域性的氣候變化已造成水文、陸地、生態等影響，尤其是溫度升高，對作物、經濟等造成衝擊，熱帶、副熱帶與溫帶地區之農作物產量下降，全球糧食供給及糧食安全平衡亦受到影響。而水稻是世界三大糧食作物之一，也是亞洲地區之主要糧食，其產量除了受到基因之影響外，栽培管理、環境條件也是影響因素，尤其是作物環境之氣溫、雨量、溼度等氣象因子，與水稻作物生長有密切關係。 臺灣地處熱帶、副熱帶季風氣候區，稻米亦是臺灣地區主要糧食作物，氣候變化對其產量之影響更是值得探究之議題。IPPC之評估報告指出，東亞地區是全球增溫較快之地域之一，臺灣近百年來每十年平均增溫速率為0.14℃約是全球平均增溫速率之兩倍，可見對臺灣影響之鉅。 本研究將臺灣地區分為14小區，應用由CERES模式系列發展之The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)作物模式以臺灣之實際天氣資料配合內建之稻米生理資料、土壤資料等模擬2000~2009年臺灣稻米產量。並應用統計時間序列模式以臺灣天氣資料、各地區產量資料進行模式分析並模擬產量。利用兩模式分別模擬氣溫上升對於水稻產量之影響，比較兩模式對於溫度升高變化之反應，以用於未來面對氣候變遷之產量影響農業糧食政策之參考資料。

Global warming is an important issue in recent years. According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations (IPCC), the regional climate change has impact on hydrology, land and ecology change. In particular, rising temperature is one of the reasons for decrease in crop production in tropical, subtropical regions. The global food supply and food security balance are also affected by the climate change. Rice is one of the three major food crops in the world, and is also the main food of Asia. The amount of rice production is influenced by genes, cultivation and management. In addition, environmental condition is also an influential factor, especially the temperature, rainfall, humidity and other meteorological factors which are closely related to the growth and production of rice crop. Taiwan is located in the tropical and sub-tropical monsoon climate zone, and rice is the main food in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on rice production is one of the important research topics in agriculture. According to IPPC assessment report, East Asia is one of the areas with the most rapid global warming. The average warming rate per ten years in the past century is in Taiwan which is about twice as high as the global average warming rate. Therefore increasing temperature will have a tremendous impact on rice production in Taiwan. In this study, we applied the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model using the temperature and rainfall data from Taiwan, and the rice physiological, soil and other data built in the model to predict rice production for each of rice production regions in Taiwan. We also employed statistical time series models with the Taiwan temperatures and precipitations to predict the rice production for each of the regions in Taiwan. Then fitted DASSAT and time series models are used to investigate the impact of the elevate temperature on rice production. Our research on the impact of change in temperature on the rice production may be useful for forming the agricultural policy in Taiwan.