國民黨與民進黨兩岸政策的比較：從民選總統黨政權力來分析

Abstract

本研究旨在探究國民黨與民進黨兩岸政策，在台灣進行總統公民直選之後，歷任四位民選總統，兩岸政策是如何進行改變，而改變的因素為何。本研究主要的研究途徑是從國內政治的角度來探究兩岸政策之變遷，並以總統的黨政權力作為研究的主要研究依據。本文從總統的施政滿意度、與行政院長的關係、以及在總統兼任黨主席與否等黨政權力面向來探究四位總統的兩岸政策。本文在研究方法上，主要是採質性研究，並以文本與次級資料分析，以及深入訪談來探究總統在兩岸政策決策之依據或影響因素。本研究發現當國民黨與民進黨總統處於施政滿意度的高峰，同時若又兼任黨主席時，執政的總統多會採取避險政策。但當總統的黨政權力處於低潮，而且卸任黨主席，甚至退居二線釋出多數行政權的拍板空間給行政院長時，總統的兩岸政策，在民進黨執政時會趨向抗衡，而國民黨的總統會趨向扈從。兩黨的總統都會希望藉由鞏固基本盤的方式，重回政黨的領導地位，進而試圖在政治上重回權力顛峰。

This thesis aims to explore the Cross-Strait policy of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). How did the cross-strait policies change after undergoing four directly elected presidents? What were drivers of change? This thesis focuses on the transformation of the cross-strait relation from the perspective of domestic politics, and takes the president's party and government power as the main explanatory factors. It also explores the Cross-Strait policy from the satisfaction rate of the four presidents, the relation between the President and the President of Executive Yuan, and the president as the party chairman or not. The research method is Qualitative Research and analyzes the influencing factors of the president's cross-strait policy decisions with content analysis and secondary data analysis, and in-depth interviews. This study finds that when the KMT and the DPP presidents are reaching to the higher satisfaction rates with their policies and as the party chairman, their Cross-Strait policy will become Hedging. However, when the presidents are reaching to the lower satisfaction rates with their policies and are not the party chairman, they would stand back to the second line and release the majority of executive power's decision-making space to the President of the Executive Yuan. In sum, this thesis argues that Cross-Strait policy of the DPP is likely to become more balancing; as the one of the KMT is likely to become bandwagoning. The presidents of both parties are likely to hope to return to the party's leadership by consolidating the basics, and then try to return to the peak of power politically.