水庫水資源供應和發電之賽局競爭分析

Abstract

台灣電力系統的總裝置容量約為41,000 MW，其中水力發電是台灣最重要的再生能源之一，發電容量約為4,540 MW，佔總發電容量約十分之一。水資源與能源系統的主要關係包含：水資源生產能源的水力發電、水資源系統操作造成的能源耗用、及能源生產過程的水資源使用。本研究利用賽局理論(Game Theory)中的等價競爭(Cournot Model)模式，建立寡佔(Oligopoly)售電市場中，水庫水資源供應、水力發電、以及其他能源生產者進行發電售電，水資源與能源系統間的競爭與合作，並分析此等價競爭模型達均衡狀態時的決策意義和趨勢。本研究進行之案例分析，以台灣中部大甲溪流域的德基水庫和谷關水庫，探討在台中市和彰化縣地區的水資源供應與水力發電策略，並分析台灣電力公司、星能火力以及星元火力發電公司在能源市場上的競爭結果。

The total installed capacity of the power generation systems in Taiwan is about 41,000 MW, and hydropower is one of Taiwan’s most important renewable energy sources, with electricity generation capacity of about 4,540 MW, up to one tenth of the total installed capacity. Water and energy systems include the following key relationships : hydropower generation by water, energy consumption caused by water system operation , and energy generation by using water resource. This study applies the Cournot Model of Game Theory in oligopolistic market sales of electricity, to simulate the reservoir water supply , hydropower generation, and other energy producers for the sales of electricity generation of water and energy systems between competition and cooperation, and to analyze the decision-making significance and trends of the equilibrium state.Case studies carries out in this study by exploring the water supply and hydropower generation strategies of De-ji reservoir and Ku-Kuan reservoir to Taichung and Changhua area , and analyzing the market competition results of Taipower Company , Star Energy Company and Star-Yuan Company