社會關注與市場需求遞延之研究

Abstract

什麼因素會影響消費者的需求？本人長年從事網路零售業，對這個命題非常的關注，實務的經驗剛好可以讓我驗證一些假設。 消費者的需求（demand）受其欲望及可支配金錢兩大因素支配。欲望是從兩大基本變數延伸的：一是維持個體的生命，二是延續物種的生命。延續物種需要優生，競爭而留強汰弱才能確保下一代更強。因此，求生、吸引競爭、及強烈的競爭是欲望的源頭。取得最有效的工具（產品）就是需求的行為。工具雖然與時俱進，但是短時間內變化不大，收入變動幅度更小。因此消費者需求常態下大致穩定。 但是，如果有社會非常態的事件發生，此事件可能會吸引人的注意力，啟動人對不確定的未來做邏輯推理，這個將會消耗這個人很大的心智能量，原來消費者常態分配的心智能量比例就會隨之而變，最後影響購買行為。社會判斷理論在研究，當事人對社會事件發生時的判斷會影響他的後續行為。什麼特質的事件比較會吸引人的注意力，又什麼樣特質的事件會耗用人的心智能量比較大？ 注意力曲線模型描繪出一個狀態：當注意力在常態分配的狀況下，消費需求有一定的成長趨勢。當有一段期間，人的注意力被轉移要耗用很大的心智能量時，這段期間的消費量（需求量）就會降低，一直到事件過後隨之反彈。 為了驗證這樣的變化，正確的預測是必要的工具。因為同一時間點不會同時發生正反兩種情況，所以當注意力被轉移時，我們就要用預測的方法來假設注意力沒有被轉移時的狀態，用來比較兩者的差異。本文在觀察事件發生時偏離預測值跟反彈的現象。 企業瞭解注意力的轉移會影響需求量的變化的關係之後，可以事先採取預防措施，調節相配合的資源，才不會產生浪費。當消費者的注意力轉移到特定議題時，與其相關性高的商品反而會因為得到更多的關注而增加銷量，業者可以事先準備充足的商品數量以呼應需求的增加。

I have been doing the internet shopping business for more than 10 years. What are the factors that really influence the demand from the consumers is my always concern. In year 2012, Taiwan held her presidential vote. Before the result revealed, people paid their attention on watching TV, and the purchase orders dropped. While, when the result was announced on the TV, people went to buy the necessity from the retail channel again. This change is not hard to understand, but the study on the reason is still interesting and valuable for the future application. The attention is an important factor on the demand behavior. The order fluctuates due to the attention switching. How the attention works becomes the core study of this observation. The first priority of human race is to survive and to carrier DNA to the next generation. Therefore, how to escape from danger and deliver the better next generation are the related affairs that people always watch on. In order to use all of the energy on the task, people can only do one heavy task at one time. When we do A, we will not be able to do B. Kanhneman addresses this theory on his book, Thinking Fast and Slow. And, what kinds of the event happened in the society will attract more attention? The Social Judgment Theory provides a model to help us judge which one will impact more on the current attention. How deep of each event influences the attention depends on how long of the event triggers the system 2 to work. According to Kanhneman’s theory, if the event wakes up the system 2 to work, it will consume more efforts of attention which makes people not to switch their behavior to the new event related. To measure the impact, we need a precise forecast as the standard base line. The practical rolling forecast is necessary for this study. We will know what kinds of event will attract more attention and influence the demand. Therefore, the right action could be taken accordingly in advance. It will help us avoid loses or to get the benefit from the attention management.