1990年與2019年台灣股市行情比較

Abstract

已有多位學者研究台灣政經政策對本土產業結構已及股票市場帶來的影響，而本研究則專注於探討1990年與2019年的萬二點股票市場行情差異，30年前的股票市場參與者以及當時總體經濟背景與現今情況不可同日而語。本研究蒐集了1980年至2019年台灣總體經濟資料，並以除權除息調整股價淨值比作為行情指標，另外亦從政策經濟背景到上市公司探討2019年的大行情是否一樣為市場過熱反應，總體來說，2019年的股票行情不若1990年受散戶熱錢堆疊，專業法人參與比例提升，加上產業結構已經升級為高技術含量，2019年萬二點行情較為理性保守。

There has been a number of literatures related to the impact of Taiwan economic policy and the transformation of industrial structure and the stock market. This paper, instead, place great emphasis on a comparison between the bull market in 1990 and the booming market in 2019. I collect the macroeconomic figures over 30 years from 1980s to 2019, consolidate the listed company data including PB ratio as stock market proxy, and conduct the prudential analysis. Overall, my results indicate that the bullishness in 2019 was not driven by the momentum money. Moreover, the participants of the stock market have been more professional since there has been more and more legal person take part in this market. The industrial structure also has been through changes and is more technology-intensive. Thus, the bullish market in 2019 was much more reasonable than before.