一個所謂紅隊學者，藍普頓的中國認識

Abstract

中國崛起，使得威脅論甚囂塵上，中國研究的發展，隨著學者研究的重心與面向的不同，使美國學界對中國論述呈現兩種派別：「紅隊」與「藍隊」，前者抱持與中國交往的態度，主張美中合作勢在必行，後者則強調中國已經威脅到美國的霸權地位，以零合的角度看待美中發展，主張圍堵的政策。而本文的研究對象藍普頓，師承著名紅隊學者奧克森伯格，曾擔任美中關係委員會主席十年，學界將其歸類為紅隊學者之一，在豐富的接觸經驗下，使其相信需要從非衝突角度看待美中發展。 為了在圍堵與接觸的政策辯論清楚呈現出藍普頓的中國觀，本文建立三項分析指標：「國家意圖」、「權力變化」、「政策工具」著手，嘗試整理出藍普頓非衝突的論述脈絡。藍隊學者將整體論述建在「中國是威脅」的意圖假設之上，所有權力分析都由此核心出發，表現出攻勢現實主義的邏輯，而紅隊學者則相對地，關注客觀的權力分析，強調共同利益大於威脅。中國學界對此爭論，則著重於對威脅論的反擊。 在辯論的大背景中，藍普頓首先承認美中關係發展的困難處，但卻認為合作為時勢所趨，反映紅隊論述的思考模式，藍普頓期望能對中國權力的「正確」認識，還可從政策分析發現，即便從後冷戰到反恐時代，美國安全利益的調整，對中國角色有不同定位，藍普頓都保持其合作論述的一致性，而特別的是，相較於其他紅隊學者，藍普頓更著重深入內部來分析中國，不把中國視為外在對象，從中國角度出發，提供了美中不信任的核心因素，進一步，藍普頓運用西方理論系統化整理所得到的訊息，對自身的中國研究加以補充與修正，本研究勾勒出藍普頓對中國的思維輪廓，幫助我們反思藍普頓真正想要呈現的中國是什麼，進而尋找到美中關係新的可能性。

The rise of China made lots of scholars discuss and advocate on the theory ‘China Threat’. With the development of studies in China, they were emerged into two main streams. According to the main arguments and the perspective of their studies, they were classified and named as ‘red team’ and ‘blue team’. Red team stands for a more optimistic attitude towards the development of Sino-American relationship and argues that American government must cooperate with China. On the other hand, blue team asserts that China has already threatened the status of American hegemony, and they try to use the theory of zero sum game to analyze Sino-American relationship. Therefore, they advocate Containment. The key person of this thesis, David Lampton, who was taught by famous red team member, Michel Oksenberg, and had been Chairman of National Committee on United States-China relations for ten years, was labeled as one of red team member. With substantial experiences in dealing with China, he believes that we should use non-conflict perspective to analyze Sino-American issues. In order to show Lampton’s view on China among the arguments between containment and engagement, this thesis was discussed in three analysis indicators and those were: ‘Intention’, ‘Power’ and ‘Policy Instruction’. Through these indicators, blue team based their reasoning on the intentional hypothesis: ‘China is a threat’. As a result, negative intention affects blue team’s analysis of China power. In contrast, red team focuses on objectively analyzing China power and emphasizes that mutual interest is bigger than the threat. Toward this debate, Chinese academics want to refuse China threat theory. In David Lampton’s view on China, he admitted that there are difficulties in the future of Sino-American relations, but he insisted cooperation is inevitably necessary. On the other hand, he shared the same context with red team. Especially from his policy analysis, he has always continued the same argument from post cold war to anti-terrorism. Comparing with other Red team members, Lampton thinks to thoroughly understand China, it’s essential to learn from China’s view, and not just considering China as an external object. Furthermore, he applies western theory to systemize his studies in China. This research outlined Lampton’s studies and helped us to rethink China’s image Lampton wants to express, therefore, this helped us to find new possibilities of Sino-American relationship.