立法委員選舉中的政治素人挑戰者：以台灣立法委員選舉為例

Abstract

本文以台灣為例，探討國會層級的選舉中，政治素人是否較常在艱困選區被提名去挑戰現任者？如果是，其動機為何？除此之外，本文也想了解國會選舉中的這些政治素人挑戰者，與政治經驗豐富的其他挑戰者相比，其選舉表現是否真的較為弱勢？再來，不同背景的政治素人挑戰者，其選舉表現是否有所不同？本研究期望透過2012至2020年台灣的立法委員選舉資料，來獲得上述問題的答案。實證結果顯示，選區情勢對於政黨越艱困，或者選區的現任者越資深，政黨提名政治素人作為挑戰者的機率就越大。資料也顯示，政治素人挑戰者與其他有經驗的挑戰者相比，選舉表現確實較差。但是，如果初次參選前曾具備政治相關經歷，素人挑戰者的選舉表現會有所提升。最後本文透過個案研究的方式，嘗試了解台灣立委選舉中的政治素人參選動機為何，並將政治素人依據動機進行分類，同時探討不同政黨的政治素人樣態與日後發展。

This thesis tries to answer some questions about political amateurs in Taiwanese Legislative Elections. For example, are political amateurs often nominated by major parties to run in difficult seats? Why do they choose to run these difficult campaigns? When political amateurs run against incumbents, do they actually have poor performance than experienced candidates? Do political challengers with different backgrounds get different results in legislative elections? Using Taiwanese Legislative Elections data from 2012 to 2020, I argue that the more difficult the seat is to the major party, or the more senior their incumbents are, the greater the possibility that major parties nominate a political amateur as a challenger in legislative elections. The data also shows that political amateurs indeed have poor performance in the legislative elections than experienced challengers. However, if political amateurs have higher political quality, they will have better performance in the elections. By doing some case studies, I also learn about the different motivations and career paths of political amateurs.